Tour de France Odds, Picks, and Best Bets for Stage 6

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Thomas De Gendt winning a stage

Thomas De Gendt won a stage of last year's Tour De France in a breakway, and may try the same Thursday. Photo by @cyclingweekly (Twitter).

  • Stage 6 of the TDF (Thursday, September 3) is likely to highlight top GC contenders
  • Most of Thursday’s route is mildly hilly, but it really gets interesting with a category 1 climb late
  • What is the best bet when choosing a Stage 6 winner?

On Wednesday, the riders bunched in the peloton and relaxed for most of the day before a sprint finish. While the majority of Thursday’s Stage 6 is fairly flat, until the last 35 kilometres, which are almost entirely uphill with some serious climbing involved.

A breakaway is possible, but top general classification contenders should be active. It is not surprising that oddsmakers make race-favorite Primoz Roglic a heavy favorite to win Stage 6, as well.

2020 Tour de France Stage 5 Odds

Rider DraftKings Odds to win Stage 6
Primoz Roglic +350
Tadej Pogacar +1100
Julian Alaphilippe +1400
Thomas De Gendt +1800
Jesus Herrada +1800
Alessandro de Marchi +1800
Lennard Kamna +2200
Adam Yates +2200
Nicholas Roche +2500

Odds as of Sep. 2nd.

The 191 kilometre journey from Le Teil to Mont Aigoual is mostly flat with a few bumps until the final stretch, which includes two category 3 climbs leading to a category 1 challenge towards the end. Most of the climbs are not overly steep, though there is a brief section with a difficult stretch at nearly 10% average gradient.

After Stage 5 went to the sprinters, which was mostly expected, Stage 6 appears to be a test for the top GC contenders barring a breakaway. Roglic, the race favorite, begins the stage in second place overall. He is three seconds behind Adam Yates.

Julian Alaphilippe had been in the yellow jersey and it appeared he would stay in it following Stage 5, but he was assessed a 20-second penalty for taking an illegal feed in the final 20km of the stage.

Alaphilippe is now in 16th place and is 16 seconds behind Yates.

The Favorite

While the race is still in its first week, Roglic looks like the best rider, and his team Jumbo-Visma appears poised to take Ineos’ spot as the dominant roster on the tour.

This is exactly the type of stage where powerful riders and teams flex their muscles. There is little reason to believe anyone will be dropped until late, the sprinters should not be a factor, and the high profile riders should clash when the money is on the line.

Stage 4 had a similar setup, and Roglic reached the top of the podium.

The biggest questions around betting on Roglic in this stage is dedication. He can win the event without earning this particular stage victory, and in a stage that a dozen different riders are legitimate candidates, do you want to take +350?

Contenders

Tadej Pogacar sits third in the overall standings, seven seconds behind Yates at this juncture. The 21-year-old from UAE Team Emirates won three stages in the 2019 Vuelta a España.

What makes Pogacar dangerous is his versatility. He is fully capable of taking on and besting Roglic down the stretch, but he is also gutsy enough to try and steal the stage at an earlier point.

After the rules violation stripped Alaphilippe of yellow, it isn’t crazy at all to think his UCI WorldTeam Deceuninck–Quick-Step will put all their efforts into getting their main man back in yellow right away. He will be angry, have revenge on his mind, and he won the first mountain stage this year.

Alaphilippe is having a strong tour and, with atonement on his mind, he may want to win Stage 6 more than Roglic.

Longshots Worth Betting?

Two price plays worth considering are Thomas De Gendt and Nicholas Roche.

De Gendt led a breakaway that held off Alaphilippe and Thibaut Pinot to win Stage 8 last year.

Roche is among the best pure climbers in the tour, and should have plenty of energy down the stretch in this stage.

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Dave F.

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