Tour de France Odds, Picks, and Best Bets for Stage 21

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Tadej Pogacar shockingly won Saturday's Tour de France Individual Time Trial by enough to win the Yellow Jersey. Photo by @BBCSport (Twitter)

  • Stage 21 of the TDF (Sunday, September 20) is the final leg and should be a race among the top sprinters
  • Saturday’s miraculous comeback from Tadej Pogacar in the time trial was among the greatest upsets in cycling history
  • What sprinter provides the best betting value on the final day of the Tour? See odds below

Tadej Pogacar stole the Tour de France from Primoz Roglic on Saturday when he completed the individual time trial 81 seconds quicker than anybody else in the field. He made up a 57-second deficit to Roglic and now will ride to Paris in the ceremonial final stage assured of victory.

While the ultimate prize has been claimed, the final eight laps of the race, a sprint around the Champs-Élysées, should be a competitive test for the sprinters in the final stage of this year’s event.

2020 Tour de France Stage 21 Odds

Rider Odds to win Stage 21
Sam Bennett +275
Caleb Ewan +325
Wout Van Aert +350
Cees Bol +1100
Mads Pedersen +1600
Peter Sagan +1600
Alexander Kristoff +3300
Luka Mezgec +3300
Elia Viviani +3300
Jasper Stuyven +4000
Mateo Trentin +4000

Odds as of Sep. 19th at DraftKings

Pogacar’s comeback on Saturday is one of the largest upsets in cycling history. He was among the favorites to win the individual stage, but to capture the GC is astounding. Roglic was -2500 going into the stage that he would win this year’s Tour de France.

On the time trial Pogacar got off to a strong start, started cutting into the gap, and by the time Roglic’s bike change as they approached the lone climb was sloppy – the final result was not in question.

Pogacar leads Roglic by 59 seconds, and Richie Porte will have the final spot on the podium. A strong time trial got Porte within 3:30 of Pogacar. Fourth place Mikel Landa was more than two minutes behind Porte.

It is Tour de France tradition that the final stage be celebratory and nobody challenge the leader. In reality the race has 20 stages with one ceremonial leg at the end. The winner gets to savor and enjoy the victory.

That said, in 1987 Pedro Delgado tried to catch Stephen Roche. Roglic and Pogacar are both Slovenian and very friendly. The race for the yellow jersey in 2020 is over.

Sunday’s course has a Category 4 climb near the start but otherwise the 122 kilometre journey from Mantes-la-Jolie to Paris is flat. While an attack is not unprecedented, it is highly expected the group will ride together at a leisurely pace and the sprinters will pep up as the race hits the Champs-Élysées.

The Favorites

While Sam Bennett has secured the Green Jersey, a lot of the points he earned were on intermediate sprints throughout the race. Bennett picked up a stage victory, and certainly has the ability to add to that total on Sunday.

While Bennett left perennial Green Jersey champ Peter Sagan in the dust, as it pertains to pure sprints, Caleb Ewan is probably the fastest of the fast.

Ewan is not nearly the overall rider that Bennett is. He does not navigate mountains particularly well, and rarely is in the mix during hybrid days. That said, when it comes to flat stages and short bursts, Ewan is the closest thing the field has these days to Mark Cavendish. A decade ago Cavendish won the final stage four years in a row. Ewan took the last stage in 2019.

Pogacar is the story of this year’s Tour, but that doesn’t mean Wout Van Aert shouldn’t be praised for a tremendous race. Team Jumbo-Visma put Roglic in position to win. Van Aert not only was a big supporting piece of the puzzle, but he scored two stage wins too.

Van Aert was strong in the time trial, and overall has had a sensational race. It would not be surprising if he finishes the Tour with a bang.

Longshots

Sagan has been a tremendous disappointment this year and probably is more known during the 2020 race for controversy that achieving anything.

While he was docked for interfering with Van Aert, he never gives up, may have an attack or some other trick up his sleeve on Sunday, and surely would like to have some momentum or a good memory to take out of this year’s event.

At a big price you could do a lot worse than taking a chance with Alexander Kristoff. He won this stage two years ago.

Kristoff won Stage 1 this year, and as a teammate of Pogacar it would be the ultimate sweet ending to win the yellow jersey and final stage all in one.

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Dave F.

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