Tour de France Odds, Picks, and Best Bets for Stage 20

Tom Dumoulin has spent most of the Tour de France supporting Primoz Roglic. Will he get to take center stage on Saturday? Photo by @Cyclingnewsfeed (Twitter).

  • Stage 20 of the TDF (Saturday, September 19) is the only time trial on this year’s course
  • With Sunday’s final stage mostly ceremonial, this is the last chance for competitors to catch Primoz Roglic
  • What cyclist will be the quickest during the ITT?

Two more stages remain in this year’s Tour de France. The mountains are behind the field, and Saturday’s individual time trial is the final opportunity to make a move in the standings. Sunday’s final stage is competitive only for sprinters at the end while everybody else rides in unison to the Champs-Élysées.

Friday’s Stage 19 was mostly inconsequential. Soren Kragh Andersen broke away from the pack midway through the stage and held on for his second victory of the race, preventing the sprinters from having their expected showdown. Primoz Roglic enters the time trial 57 seconds ahead of Tadej Pogacar. Will one of them win the ITT or will a specialist take the victory on Saturday?

2020 Tour de France Stage 20 Odds

Rider Odds
Primoz Roglic +140
Wout Van Aert +250
Tom Dumoulin +300
Tadej Pogacar +900
Richie Porte +1600
Michal Kwiatkowski +1800
Thomas De Gendt +2500
Julian Alaphilippe +2500
Pello Bilbao +3300
Lennard Kamna +8000

Odds as of Sep. 19th.

The 36.2 kilometre ITT from Lure to La Planche des Belles Filles is not as flat and straightforward as we normally see. While the terrain is not difficult, a Category 1 climb at the end includes nearly six kilometres with gradients over eight percent.

While Roglic has looked every part of a champion for most of the last week, Pogacar is capable and there are some time bonuses available on the route. His best effort may win the stage, but to make up nearly a minute on Roglic, he may have to hope his Slovenian compatriot encounters a problem.

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There is no doubt that the winner of the Yellow Jersey is the name that everybody remembers and gushes over. That said, you could argue Wout Van Aert has been the best overall rider this year. He has been a tremendous aid to Roglic, part of the incredibly strong Jumbo-Visma team, and found a way to win two other stages

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XTXamyD9S0

Unlike a normal stage, there is no Roglic for Van Aert to assist in an individual time trial. He is free to go as quickly as he can. Twice, he has been the Belgium time trial champion, including a relatively easy victory last month.

Tom Dumoulin is in the same boat at Van Aert. He has spent three weeks making sure Roglic is safe and being a good soldier for Jumbo-Visma. Dumoulin took gold on a very similar course in the 2017 ITT World Championship. Roglic was second, 57 seconds back.

Roglic and Pogacar have been the primary GC contenders for most of the race, and the only two viable options for at least the last week. Both are good at time trials and have a ton of motivation.

Roglic won the Slovenian Time Trial in 2016, while Pogacar has taken the same event each of the last two years. Pogacar edged Roglic by nine seconds this year.

Racing against the clock is a bit different than against individuals. Strategy is more straightforward; there is no team to support you, and everyone’s motivation should be high.

This time trial is a bit different because of the climb. That could be a slight edge to Pogacar, but likely a matter of ticks, not enough to make up the full deficit.

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Longshots

Richie Porte is currently fourth in the overall standings and, while he is nearly 100 seconds behind third-place Miguel Angel Lopez, he has experience in time trials.

ITTs are really where Porte initially made a name for himself, and it is never surprising when he flourishes in this environment.

Young German Lennard Kämna has had an excellent Tour de France. He won Stage 16 and is riding really well.

Kamna has a tremendous history in time trials. He won several junior events in 2014, added a U23 title the next year, repeated in 2015, and was a part of a team time trial title at the Road World Championships in 2017.

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Dave F.

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