Tour de France Odds, Picks, and Best Bets for Stage 19

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Ineos teammates Michal Kwiatkowski and Richard Carapaz hugging at the finish line of Stage 18.

Ineos teammates Michal Kwiatkowski and Richard Carapaz crossed the finish line together on Thursday at the Tour de France. Photo by @twocGAME (Twitter).

  • Stage 19 of the TDF (Friday, September 18) is mostly flat and will benefit sprinters who have survived the mountains
  • It is unlikely that a major shakeup in the GC race will take place on Friday before Saturday’s individual time trial
  • Who provides the best betting value in Stage 19?

The last several stages of the 2020 Tour de France – gruelling treks through the Alps – put the focus squarely on the General Classification battle. But the sprinters, at least the ones remaining in the race, will get the limelight in Stage 19 on Friday (Sep. 18th).

2020 Tour de France Stage 19 Odds

Rider DraftKings Odds to win Stage 19
Sam Bennett +400
Wout Van Aert +500
Caleb Ewan +700
Peter Sagan +750
Luka Mezgec +1400
Cees Bol +1800
Mads Pedersen +1800
Sonny Colbrelli +2500
Jasper Stuyven +3300
Matteo Trentin +3300
Greg Van Avermaet +3300

Odds as of Sep. 17th.

Primoz Roglic, the pre-race favorite, strengthened his lead on Wednesday and likely put the race away, taking a 57-second lead into the antepenultimate stage.

While an individual time trial on Saturday is an opportunity for second-place Tadej Pogacar to gain ground, it is unlikely he can beat Roglic – an excellent time-trialist – by nearly a minute. Neither should be in the mix on Friday. It is a stage that seems designed for sprinters

Following bruising day-after-day combat in the mountains, the sprinters who survived should enjoy Friday’s 160 mostly flat kilometres from Bourg-en-Bresse to Champagnole. There is one Category 4 climb on a bumpy but not difficult stage. Since it is the last opportunity, a breakaway will undoubtedly try to steal the stage. That said, the sprinters have in large part gotten through the mountains for this opportunity, and the chance to win the final stage on Sunday on the Champs-Élysées.

The Favorites

Green Jersey-leader Sam Bennett has been the top sprinter in this year’s race. He won Stage 10 and has battled for points along the route nearly every day.

It has been a remarkable Tour de France for Bennett. Not only has he outdueled Peter Sagan day-in and day-out, but he has held his own in the pure sprints.

Contenders

To get an idea of how dominant Team Jumbo-Visma has been this year, consider they have supported Roglic in the mountains and still had the energy to assist Wout Van Aert in winning two stages.

Van Aert has done yeoman’s work, putting in serious miles for Roglic, competing in pure sprints, and staying in the mix in hybrid stages. He has been strong right from the beginning.

If the breakaway is unsuccessful, Friday turns into a sprinters’ dash, and if he has any legs remaining from some really hard days in the mountains, Caleb Ewan provides terrific value.

Ewan is a non-factor on days with climbs, but give him a short runway, and he can explode. Let’s be honest, the only reason he hasn’t dropped out of the race is the chance to win another stage on Friday, Sunday, or both.

Sagan has had a disaster of a race. At the age of 30, he has dominated the Green Jersey competition over the past decade; but this year, he has not been able to compete in the traditional sprints, has been outmatched in intermediate battles, and was penalized when he dangerously shoved Van Aert in order to try and get past him at the end of Stage 11. This is his last opportunity to salvage something.

Longshots

This is the final year for Team CCC in the Tour de France, and they would surely love to win a stage before racers disperse. Greg Van Avermaet and Matteo Trentin are both longshots who could look to be opportunistic on Friday.

Van Avermaet has won two individual stages and two time trials in six appearances at the Tour de France. Trentin has three stage victories, and eight on grand tours. Both are in good form and are viable both in a breakaway or sprint. They very well could work together, in the same way that Ineos did on Thursday, when teammates Michael Kwiatkowski and Richard Carapaz crossed the line almost simultaneously.

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Dave F.

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