- The odds to lead the MLB in home runs in 2019 have been updated
- Reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich is the new favorite among the individual players listed
- However, the FIELD option has the shortest odds of all; find out who it includes
Bookmaker has updated the 2019 MLB home-run king odds to reflect some recent hot streaks and injuries.
Earlier in May, my colleague advised that Khris Davis was good value at +1200 to be the MLB home-run king. Unfortunately, Davis suffered an oblique strain that could keep him out for a while, and his odds have plummeted as a result.
Here's where things stand as of May 24th.
Odds to Lead MLB in Home Runs in 2019
|Who will lead MLB in home runs in 2019?||Homers as of May 24||Home-run leader odds at
|Christian Yelich, Brewers||19||+325|
|George Springer, Astros||17||+501|
|Cody Bellinger, Dodgers||17||+526|
|Joey Gallo, Rangers||15||+939|
|Mike Trout, Angels||11||+1507|
|Joc Pederson, Dodgers||14||+1507|
|Nolan Arenado, Rockies||11||+2012|
|Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals||14||+2518|
|Khris Davis, Athletics||12||+3026|
|Javier Baez, Cubs||12||+4000|
|Edwin Encarnacion, Mariners||13||+5000|
|Rhys Hoskins, Phillies||11||+5000|
|Eddie Rosario, Twins||14||+5000|
|Trevor Story, Rockies||11||+7500|
|Jay Bruce, Mariners||12||+10000|
|Matt Chapman, Athletics||11||+10000|
|Bryce Harper, Phillies||9||+10000|
|Aaron Judge, Yankees||5||+10000|
|Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals||10||+20000|
|Jose Altuve, Astros||9||+30000|
Springer Falls Due to Injury
George Springer was on pace for a career year before missing the last four games with back tightness. His odds have fallen from +400 to +501 as a result.
He's expected back in the lineup on Friday (May 24), but has also only managed 140 games each of the last two seasons.
As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up
As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up.
Tied for second in the majors at 17 HRs, Springer's hard-hit rate of 55% is fourth overall. His current odds give him a 16.7% implied probability.
Yelich Becomes the Outright Favorite
With a two-homer lead on the field and 36-homer season under his belt, reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich has become the favorite.
Beware, though, the 27-year-old has missed seven games already this year, including the last two with back spasms. Like Springer, he's returning on Friday.
Christian Yelich- Back- Yelich was scratched from the lineup tonight with back spasms. These back spasms are unrelated to the lower-back stiffness that sidelined him earlier in the season but are not considered serious, Adam McCalvy of https://t.co/wznV8oM89I reports. #Brewers
— Fantasy Baseball Injury Guru (@mlbinjuryguru) May 22, 2019
Yelich has a better track record than Springer in terms of health, playing at least 147 games in each of the last three seasons. He's just behind Spring in hard-hit rate at 54.8% (6th in MLB).
His odds give him a very-high 23.5% implied probability to lead the league in home runs.
Gallo is Lurking
Joey Gallo's odds have improved ever so slightly over the last two weeks, but the change is minimal. A 6'5 freak athlete, Gallo hit the 40-homer mark in 2017 and 2018.
The narrative around him this season is that he has become a more complete hitter, and that's certainly true. His OPS has skyrocketed from a solid .810 to an MVP-caliber 1.113 (fourth-best in the majors). Formerly a Golden Sombrero candidate on any given night, he's … actually still striking out a ton (35.0%), but is also being more patient. He's upped his walk rate from 12.8% to 19.1%.
His new approach at the plate hasn't cost him any power, indeed he's hitting the ball harder this year. He leads the majors in hard-hit rate at 60.7% and average exit velocity at 96.9 MPH! That's 11% higher than last season.
In terms of durability, Gallo averaged 146.5 games in 2017 and 2018, his first full seasons in the majors. H has missed four games this year, but they were all one-offs and he is not currently sporting any injury concerns.
Gallo's current odds (+939) carry an implied probability of 9.6%.
Why Is “FIELD” the Favorite?
In short, because five of the top-ten and 19 of the top 30 on the current leaderboard are in the FIELD. They include …
|Members of the FIELD||Homers as of May 23||Previous single-season high|
|Josh Bell, Pirates||16||26 (2017)|
|Pete Alonso, Mets||16||N/A (rookie)|
|Gary Sanchez, Yankees||15||33 (2017)|
|Franmil Reyes, Padres||15||16 (2018)|
|Alex Bregman, Astros||15||31 (2018)|
|Daniel Vogelbach, Mariners||14||4 (2018)|
|Mitch Moreland, Red Sox||13||23 (twice)|
|Anthony Rizzo, Cubs||13||32 (three times)|
|CJ Cron, Twins||13||30 (2018)|
|Eugenio Suarez, Reds||13||34 (2018)|
|Mike Moustakas, Brewers||12||38 (2017)|
|Freddie Freeman, Braves||12||34 (2016)|
|Derek Dietrich, Reds||12||16 (2018)|
|Tommy La Stella, Angels||12||5 (2017)|
|Mitch Haniger, Mariners||12||26 (2018)|
|Jose Abreu, White Sox||12||36 (2014)|
|Gleyber Torres, Yankees||12||24 (2018)|
|Luke Voit, Yankees||12||15 (2018)|
|Kris Bryant, Cubs||12||39 (2016)|
Betting on the FIELD gets you nine players who have a non-zero chance of winning this season-long home-run derby: Josh Bell, Pete Alonso, Gary Sanchez, Anthony Rizzo, Eugenio Suarez, Freddie Freeman, Jose Abreu, Kris Bryant, and Alex Bregman.
At +200, the FIELD has an implied probability of 33.3%. It's considerably higher than any individual player listed, and based on the current state of affairs, it should be.
Betting advice: The only bet I would consider here is Gallo at +939. At +200, there isn't enough value on the FIELD, not the way Yelich, Springer, and let's not forget Cody Bellinger are swinging the bat.
The post The “FIELD” Is Favored to Lead the MLB in Homers Over Yelich, Springer, Gallo; Just Who's in This “FIELD” Option? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.