Submission Underground 12 Odds, Picks, and Predictions


Submission Underground 12

Craig Jones takes on Kevin Casey at Submission Underground 12. Photo from @SUG_Grappling (Twitter).

  • Submission Underground 12 goes Sunday, March 29 at 6pm ET
  • Can the Happy Warrior again pull out an underdog victory? Who gets it done in Casey vs Jones?
  • Check out the odds, my submission grappling analysis, and my prediction below

Submission Underground 12 emanates from Portland, Oregon and fittingly will take place in an undisclosed underground location and is perhaps the only sporting event on the planet that will be taking place this weekend.

This weekend’s submission grappling event brings together heavy hitters from the world of no-gi jiu-jitsu some notable names from the UFC. The Chael Sonnen-helmed promotion has been moving wave son the submission grappling scene and certainly has a chance to make a huge impression. A lot of eyes could gravitate towards this considering the present social landscape.

Submission Underground 12 Odds

Grappler Odds at MyBookie
Kevin Casey +850
Craig Jones -1250
Grappler Odds
Carlos Condit +190
Jake Ellenberger -240
Grappler Odds
Roxanne Modaferri +250
Amanda Loewen -325

*All odds taken Mar 27th, 2020

Condit vs Ellenberger

A great matchup between two stalwarts of the UFC’s welterweight division. Ellenberger is coming off of an overtime win over Diego Sanchez on the SUG circuit and is looking to keep that momentum going strong.

Condit is a guy who’s mostly known for his striking in the MMA world but he is capably effective submission grappler when he has been put on the mat or in compromised positions in general. I think Ellenberger is a more proven finisher in this area and will just ultimately have more tools/ options at SUG 12.

Pick:Jake Ellenberger (-240)

Modaferri vs Loewen

This is an intriguing bout for a multitude of reasons. Loewen is justifiably the favorite here but Modaferri has a tendency to pull off the upset when slated in the role. Her bouts with Maycee Barber and Antonina Shevchenko underscore this. She came out with dominant wins in fights where she was depicted as a lamb to the slaughter in the lead-up. Oregon’s first female black belt will look to validate her status as the betting favorite over Modaferri.

I think Loewen gets it done here. She just has the advantages in size and youth whilst competing far more regularly in straight-ahead submission grappling.

Pick: Amanda Loewen (-325)

Casey vs Jones

It’s always a blast getting to write about submission grappling for SBD. Kevin Casey is a Rickson Gracie black belt. Jones discussed training with him a few years ago and said that Casey was able to submit him a couple of times in that session.

Casey is a veteran of the MMA circuit having fought on The Ultimate Fighter also competing in RFA, Strikeforce, Bellator, and more. Also a fun little anecdote, Casey is the son-in-law of Muhammad Ali.  I think it was savvy for Jones to put out that account into the media where Casey subbed him a few times while training together.

Kevin Casey vs Craig Jones Tale of the Tape

Heel Hook Favorite position/ technique Open Guard
Black Belt Belt Ranking Black Belt
Rickson Gracie Lineage Carlos Gracie
N/A Accolades Polaris 205 lbs Champion
Polaris 185 lbs Champion

It’s a tried and true technique in promoting combat sports-oriented events to make your opponent look as strong as possible. Jones understands what the line is heading into this one so interjecting that story into the media creates more parity, emboldens some notion that an upset can happen here, etc.

A savvy move from Jones but I ultimately see him getting the finish inside the distance. Jones has never been to the overtime period on the SUG circuit. I think Casey will be able to get out of some tough positions and show some grit but I think he’ll succumb to Craig Jones in the end.

Pick: Craig Jones (-1250)

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Dylan Bowker

MMA Sports Writer


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