Portugal Primeira Liga Matchday 32 Odds & Picks: Relegation Battle Burns
Paulo Sergio's Portimonense are three points from safety, but have a very real chance at survival with three matchdays left. Photo from @portimonense (Instagram).
- Porto require just a single point against Sporting on Wednesday — or Benfica to drop points vs. Guimaraes on Tuesday — in order to clinch the league title
- Portimonense sit on 27 points in the final relegation spot, just three points back of Tondela and Setubal; Paulo Sergio’s Portimonense have the easiest remaining schedule of the trio, which should make for entertaining viewing down the stretch
- Get all the odds and best bets for Matchday 32 in Portugal below
Porto are favorites for their home clash against a resurgent Sporting, which has rediscovered its form under flashy new manager Ruben Amorim and surged back into the driver’s seat ahead of Braga in the race for 3rd place.
An unsteady Benfica face a tricky test at home against Guimaraes, while Braga (-312) host Belenenses (+900) with an opportunity to gain ground on Sporting with runway running out on the season.
All eyes will be on the bottom of the table, which is where we head with our three picks in keeping an eye on the trio of Portimonense, Tondela and Setubal.
Matchday 32 kicks off on Monday, with Maritimo (+240) hosting Rio Ave (+102) in Funchal at 2pm ET.
Liga NOS Matchday 32 Odds
|Maritimo||+0.5 (-122)||+240||O 2, 2.5 (-120)|
|Rio Ave||-0.5 (+102)||+102||U 2, 2.5 (+100)|
|Vit. Setubal||pk, +0.5 (-123)||+205||O 2, 2.5 (-113)|
|Famalicao||pk, -0.5 (+103)||+132||U 2, 2.5 (-107)|
|Portimonense||-0.5, 1 (-113)||-149||O 2, 2.5 (-102)|
|Boavista||+0.5, 1 (-107)||+420||U 2, 2.5 (-118)|
|Gil Vicente||pk, -0.5 (-101)||+138||O 2, 2.5 (+102)|
|Tondela||pk, +0.5 (-119)||+200||U 2, 2.5 (-122)|
|Moreirense||pk (-114)||+161||O 2, 2.5 (-106)|
|Pacos Ferreira||pk (-106)||+174||U 2, 2.5 (-114)|
|Sporting Braga||-1.5 (-110)||-312||O 3 (+101)|
|Belenenses||+1.5 (-110)||+900||U 3 (-121)|
|FC Porto||N/A||-147||O 3 (+101)|
|Sporting Lisbon||N/A||+400||U 3 (-121)|
All odds taken July 12
Pick 1: Vit. Setubal vs. Famalicao
It’s hard to overstate just how poor Setubal (6-12-13) have been as of late, but their awful performances — a 3-2 home loss vs 13th-place Pacos last Saturday and a 1-0 defeat against a historically-bad Aves side on Wednesday — in recent weeks certainly tip them as strong relegation candidates.
Famalicao (13-10-8) have been inconsistent out of the COVID break, but held on for a 1-0 win at Tondela last Sunday despite finishing the game down a man. Joao Pedro Sousa’s squad sits a single point back of Rio Ave in the race for fifth place, and will be highly motivated to claim all three points on the road against a Setubal side that looks incapable of stopping its slide.
Setubal have won just three of 15 matches at home this season.
PICK: Famalicao pk, -0.5 (+103)
Pick 2: Portimonense vs. Boavista
After an undefeated 3-2-0 start out of the COVID break, Portimonense (5-12-14) have slumped to defeats against Guimaraes (1-2) and Rio Ave (0-1) in their last two outings — but still have a very real chance at salvation with three games left.
The book on Boavista (10-8-13) has been consistent throughout the season: They do not score, and they do not concede.
The under has also hit in two of Portimonense’s last three matches, as they hunker down in search of crucial points down the stretch.
PICK: U 2, 2.5 (-118)
Pick 3: Gil Vicente vs. Tondela
There would be some sweet irony if Tondela (7-9-15) were relegated beneath former manager Pepa and his new squad (Pacos Ferreira), but a number of results would need to occur for that to happen.
Gil Vicente (10-9-12) have enjoyed their soccer under veteran manager Vitor Oliveira in their return to the Portuguese top division.
Additionally, Tuesday’s hosts have lost just three times at home this season (6-6-3).
PICK: Gil Vicente pk, -0.5 (-101)
Carlos Verde is a sports media professional, with writing featured in a number of outlets, including the Epoch Times, Ottawa Life Magazine and Where is Football. He also served as a broadcast commentator for the United Soccer League's Ottawa Fury FC.
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