Pete Buttigieg Has Third Best Odds to Win 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Nomination

  • Pete Buttigieg's star is continuing to shine brightly within the Democratic Party
  • Mayor Pete raised $7 million in April alone
  • Could the police brutality issue back at home in South Bend come back to hurt him?

The first wave of Democratic debates will get underway on Wednesday evening. Everyone is gunning for Joe Biden as he’s the top dog right now and one of those candidates looking to catch up is Pete Buttigieg. Is he worth a bet at this point to win the Democratic Party presidential nomination, or is he still too risky?

2020 Democratic Party Presidential Nomination Odds

Candidate2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds at
Joe Biden+200
Pete Buttigieg+400
Bernie Sanders+450
Kamala Harris+550
Elizabeth Warren+700

*Odds taken 06/26/19. Click on the link in the table above to see odds for more candidates.

Pressure on Biden

There’s no question that Biden has a huge lead right now over the rest of the field, but let’s recall how things went in 2016 when there were this many Republicans in the field. There was a time when Chris Christie was the favorite and many thought Jeb Bush had it in the bag. A lot can change.

There’s pressure on Biden to deliver at the debates as he’s been making a mess since announcing that he’s running. From race issues (where he was called out by Cory Booker) to abortion issues to plagiarism scandals, he’s got to get it together. He’s ahead based on the name recognition, but if he’s this sloppy at the debates, he’s going to tumble quickly.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker

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Mayor Pete is a Moderate

One of the biggest selling points for Mayor Pete is that he’s a moderate. He’s young (37 years old), progressive, and openly gay, so the really-left section of the party has taken a liking to him. At the same time, he’s not a full-on progressive like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, so the moderate left can get on-board too. That's why his Democratic Party Presidential nomination odds have shortened.

And the public has responded to him quite well. He raised just $7 million in the first quarter of the year, but raised a startling $7 million in the month of April. It’s pretty clear that many people believe in him.

Police Brutality Incident Could Hurt

Mayor Pete had his first hiccup this week in South Bend where a white police officer recently shot and killed a black man. That’s put him in the spotlight because as the Mayor of South Bend, he has to toe the line of supporting his police unit while at the same time show the nation that he won’t tolerate police brutality.

What’s hurting him is that he fired the city’s first black police chief and under his watch, the police unit has gone from 26 African Americans to just 13. He’s starting to get a little bit of a track record of mishandling these police cases and that could hurt him.

What’s the Best Bet?

In terms of how to bet on Mayor Pete, I would take a wait-and-see approach. He’s faced virtually no criticism to date nationally. He also hasn’t taken any fire from his fellow candidates. I want to see how he performs at the debates before making a decision.

In terms of Biden, I’m expecting him to drop as he’s not a great candidate altogether and I’m expecting Mayor Pete, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders to benefit. With a good showing, this could be Mayor Pete’s coming out party, and while the odds on him will shorten I still think he’s too risky at this point.

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