Opening 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds: Aaron Donald Favored, Khalil Mack Listed at 4-1

  • Aaron Donald notched 20.5 sacks last season and won the Defensive Player of the Year award
  • Since 1969, only once has a player won the DPOY award in consecutive seasons
  • There could be good value with Myles Garrett at +2200

Aaron Donald was named the 2018 Defensive Player of the Year and looking ahead to the coming season, he is currently the favorite. Is he the best to win this award? There could be good value on the board with someone like Khalil Mack, who is at 4/1, or J.J. Watt at +700.

2019 Defensive Player Of The Year Odds

Player Odds at
Aaron Donald +200
Khalil Mack +400
J.J. Watt +700
Von Miller +1000
Joey Bosa +2000
Myles Garrett +2200
Demarcus Lawrence +2500
Chandler Jones +3300
Darius Leonard +3300
Leighton Vander Esch +3300
Luke Kuechly +4000
Jaylon Smith +4000
Melvin Ingram +4000

*Odds as of  07/27/19.

Rarely Repeat Winners

The first thing you should know when betting this prop is that there are rarely repeat winners. J.J. watt won the award in 2014 and 2015, and also took in 2012. However, outside of his repeat effort, nobody else has won this award in consecutive seasons. That’s going back to 1969, so we have some history here.

There’s no question that Donald is an impressive player and is clearly one of the best defensive players in the game – if not the best. However, in terms of specifically betting on this prop, there doesn’t appear to be much value as history suggests he’s not going to pull it off. At the same time, he’s only paying +200.

Mack Coming Off a Strong Campaign

Mack is coming off a monster season where he had 12.5 sacks, six forced fumbles and a pick. All of that came in just 14 games, which is quite impressive. The question is: what will he do for an encore, in his second season in Chicago?

Mack won this award in 2016 when he had 11 sacks, 54 tackles, a pick, three passes defensed and a touchdown. My general feeling is that the Bears – as a team – overachieved last season and a regression to the mean is due. They beat a lot of non-playoff teams, so with a tougher schedule, it might not be so easy.

Also, don’t forget that the defense lost coordinator Vic Fangio, who is now the head coach of the Denver Broncos. That being the case, I expect a good year from Mack but not a Defensive Player of the Year type of campaign.

Value with Bosa?

Los Angeles Chargers outside linebacker Joey Bosa was one of the most dominant players in the league 2017 but missed the first nine games of 2018 and rarely looked quite right. Even so, he had 5.5 sacks in just seven games, including a fumble recovery and 18 tackles.

If he’s healthy for a full season, Bosa could be a wrecking ball on a very good, underrated defense. The Chargers have plenty of talent around him, including linebacker Melvin Ingram on the opposite side, so defenses can’t always double-team Bosa. He could be in line for a big season.

Garrett is a Good Flier

My favorite bet with this prop is second-year starter Myles Garrett. The first overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft didn’t have a ton of help around him in the first couple of seasons but still managed 20.5 sacks in just 27 games. That includes 13.5 sacks last season.

Garrett has a lot of help around him this year as the Browns added players like Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson. That means opposing offenses won’t be able to focuses solely on Garrett. With less attention, I expect him to grow into a defense player of the year type of player. He wasn’t far off last season.

When you take a look at the odds, he’s up on the board at +2200 and I like the risk-versus-reward opportunity here. This could be a very good Browns team and he’s one of the team’s best players.

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