Odds on Joe Burrow Breaking NFL Rookie Passing Yards Record Ahead of Week 8

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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) is on pace to set a new NFL record for passing yards by a rookie.in a season. The current record of 4,374 was set by Andrew Luck in 2012 Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire.

  • Burrow’s odds to to beat Andrew Luck’s 2012 record of 4,374 passing yards by a rookie quarterback are at +200
  • To beat the record, Burrow has to average 261.2 yards per game over his next nine games
  • See how Burrow and Luck compare and whether the reigning Heisman Trophy winner is a good bet to break the record

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has enjoyed such an impressive start to his NFL career that he only needs to average 261. 2 passing yards per game over his last nine games to break Andrew Luck’s eight-year-old record of 4,374 passing yards by a rookie.

It seems like he’s a good bet to do it when you consider that he has thrown for 300 or more yards in five of his last six starts. But oddsmakers have set Burrow as a +200 underdog.

Odds Burrow Breaks NFL Rookie Passing Yards Record

Result Odds
Yes (4,375 Yards or More) +200
No (4,374 Yards or Less) -300

Odds as of Oct. 26.

Burrow accumulated 406 yards in last Sunday’s 37-34 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

In seven games, Burrow has thrown for 2,023 yards, an average of 289 yards per game. After seven games  in 2012, Luck has thrown for 1,971 yards.

Burrow vs Luck: First Seven Games Comparison

2,023 Passing Yards 1,971
5 300+ Yards Passing Games 3
66.6 Completion Percentage 53.4
289.0 Yards Per Game 281.5
28 Sacked 20
9 Touchdown Passes 6
1 Wins 4

Burrows Making Fewer Mistakes Than Most Rookies

Composure, clarity, consistency: That’s what separates Burrow from most rookie quarterbacks. He is far from perfect on his reads, but he has less panic in him than most rookies. He sees the field better than he should for a player who played his first NFL game last month

Most of the time, Burrow makes the right play, as his 66.4% completion percentage would confirm. He has only thrown five interceptions. Many  veteran quarterbacks have thrown for more.

He is improving every week. Last week, he had his best game, going 35-of-47 for 406 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for 34 yards and a touchdown.

Burrow Has More Sizzle Than Luck Had in 2012

Nothing illustrates Burrow’s status as a franchise quarterback more than the reality that he will, barring injury, blow away Luck’s record of six 300+ passing yardage games.

It helps that Burrow’s completion percentage of 66.4% this season  is much better than Luck’s 54.1% in 2012.  Luck and Burrow boast similar levels of poise and confidence.

After seven starts, Burrow already has five playing for a poor team. The Bengals are 1-5-1 this season. Luck’s Indianapolis Colts team was 11-5.  Luck’s career percentage was 60.4%.

2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker

Bengals More Weapons Than You Think

Although the Bengals are not a quality football team, Burrow has some skilled performers on his offense.  Tyler Boyd has 48 catches (517 yards), and Tee Higgins has three TD catches. A.J. Green owns 29 catches and is a former All-Pro.

Thanks to Burrow, the Bengals can put points on the board, although they are not without their problems.

What we know for sure: the Bengals will be behind plenty, and Burrow will mostly be throwing in an effort to keep his team in the game. That’s a positive for a player trying to break a passing record.


It’s A Good Bet Burrow Will Break the Record

Given how sharply Burrow has played thus far,  this bet is primarily about Burrow’s ability to stay healthy.  The threat of injury is probably his biggest obstacle to claiming the record.

When you consider that Burrow has already been sacked 28 times in seven games, the threat is not insignificant. Only four other QBs (Carson Wentz,  DeShaun Watson,  Gardner Minshew, and Daniel Jones) have been sacked 20 or more times this season. Burrow is on a pace to be sacked 64 times this season.

But betting he will break the record seems like the better option at +200. Given his week-to-week consistency, he should be able to rack up the yards he needs.

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Kevin Allen

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