Netherlands vs Croatia Odds & Prediction


Netherlands' Steven Bergwijn, second right, is congratulated by teammates after scoring his team's first goal during the World Cup 2022 group G qualifying soccer match between the Netherlands and Norway at De Kuip stadium in Rotterdam, Netherlands, Tuesday, Nov. 16, 2021. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

  • It’s Netherlands vs Croatia in the semifinal of the UEFA Nations League on Wednesday, June 14
  • The Netherlands, with home advantage, start as favorites against the experienced Croatians
  • Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Netherlands vs Croatia in the first semifinal of the UEFA Nations League on Wednesday, June 14, with kick-off in Rotterdam’s De Kuip Stadium at 2:45pm ET.

In order to make it to these finals, the Dutch easily won League A Group 4 without losing a game, while Croatia had to get past the mighty French in League A Group 1 to qualify.

We preview our Netherlands vs Croatia picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Netherlands vs Croatia Odds

MatchupMoneylineTo Qualify for Final

The Netherlands start as the bookmakers’ odds-on favorites at -110, with an implied win probability of 52%, while Croatia are listed at a more generous +290, implied at 26%.  The draw is nicely priced at +220 in the Netherlands vs Croatia odds and is implied at 31%.


Odds from FansDuel Sportsbook on June 14.

Netherlands vs Croatia Over/Under and Spread

With the tipping point set at 2.5 goals, the bookies have listed the over in plus money at +102 and the under at a less appealing -142. By implication, they are anticipating a tight game with few goals.

Netherlands vs Croatia Preview

While the World Cup ended in disappointment for the Dutch – they lost to the eventual winners Argentina in the quarterfinal – they had, prior to that tournament, found their very best form in Nations League qualifying. In a tricking-looking group that also included Belgium, Wales, and Poland, they collected 16 points from a possible 18.

Their two internationals since the World Cup, both in European Championship qualifying, produced mixed results with their opening game concluding in a 4-0 thrashing by France – the current Nations League champions – but their second producing an easy 3-0 over the minnows from Gibraltar.

Home Comforts for Koeman’s Men

The fact this mini-tournament is being played on Dutch soil is a massive advantage for Ronald Koeman’s men who have only been beaten once in the nine Nations League games they have played at home – that single defeat coming against Italy in September 2020.

The winners of this tie will play the winners of Thursday night’s second semifinal – Spain vs Italy.

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Experienced and Consistent Croatia

This aging but vastly experienced Croatian group continues to confound its critics and in Qatar was only one game away from making it to a second successive World Cup Final. As it transpired, their tournament ended in disappointment at the semifinal stage when they were beaten 3-0 by the eventual winners, Argentina.

But this is a Croatia team that has produced good results consistently over a period of years rather than a couple of tournaments, and that good form extended into their Nations League qualifying campaign, where they impressively finished top of League A Group 1 ahead of France, Denmark, and Austria.

Croatia Masters of the Away Game

In their Euro qualifiers, back in late March, Zlatko Dalić’s men opened with an underwhelming 1-1 draw with Wales but followed it up three days later with an impressive 2-0 away win in Turkey – a continuation of some excellent away form that also saw them win their three away games in Nations League qualifying.

Wednesday’s game will be only the third time these two teams have met, with Croatia winning their first meeting in the 1998 World Cup third/fourth-place play-off, and the Dutch getting revenge in a 2008 friendly.

Netherlands vs Croatia Team Lineups and Injuries

Netherlands Projected Lineup: Bijlow, Dumfries, Van Dijk, Botman, Ake, De Roon, De Jong, Wijnaldum, Bergwijn, Gakpo, Simons.

Injuries & absences: Depay, De Ligt.

Croatia Projected Lineup: Livakovic, Juranovic, Sutalo, Erlic, Sosa, Kovacic, Brozovic, Modric, Pasalic, Kramaric, Perisic.

Injuries & absences: Gvardiol, Livaja.

Netherlands vs Croatia Head-to-Head Stats

5-1-0Nations League qualifying record4-1-1
14 / 6Goals for / against8 / 6
88 / 30Goal attempts / on target*57 / 22
55.5Possession (%)*52.3
88.5Passing accuracy (%)*87.8
DWWLLWForm Guide (all comps)WWLWDW

* Stats from UEFA official stats.

Netherlands vs Croatia Prediction

Something has to give in a contest between a team with a good home record against one that enjoys playing away from home more than at home. I expect this to be closer than the odds suggest and, for me, the value bet here is with the draw after 90 minutes and the tie then going to extra-time.

Netherlands vs Croatia Picks: The draw (+220) / Under 2.5 goals (-142)


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