Nadal vs Fritz Odds & Pick: Mexican Open Final


Rafael Nadal returns a ball.

Rafael Nadal is favored to win the 2020 Mexican Open final but can Taylor Fritz pull a surprise? Photo by Christopher Johnson (Flickr).

  • Rafael Nadal and Taylor Fritz will square off in the 2020 Mexican Open finals on Saturday
  • Nadal has lost a total of 20 games in this entire tournament (four matches)
  • Fritz has played well – read below if he can slay the dragon and win his second-ever ATP tournament

The 2020 Abierto Mexicano Telcel Open has reached the final and while one of the players was expected to be there, the other is a complete surprise. No. 1 Rafael Nadal is a big favorite over unseeded Taylor Fritz on Saturday night (10pm ET). Can Fritz muster up any type of an effort here or should we expect an easy win for Nadal?

Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total at Bovada
Rafael Nadal -5.0 (-135) -1200 Over 20.0 (-110)
Taylor Fritz +5.0 (+105) +700 Under 20.0 (-120)

Odds taken Feb. 29th

Fritz Survives Isner in Semis

Fritz earned a hard-fought win over No. 5 John Isner on Friday and as we mentioned in that preview, we expected it to be a long, grueling battle. Fritz dropped the first set 6-2 before winning the last two sets 7-5 and 6-3. It was an impressive win for the 22-year-old because we weren’t exactly sure how credible his run to the semis was.

Remember, Fritz benefitted from No. 6 Nick Kyrgios retiring in the first round. Kyrgios was the defending champ at this tournament. Fritz caught another break when No. 4 Felix Auger-Aliassime fell in the second round. That meant Fritz played three unseeded players before going toe-to-toe with Isner in the semis.

Nadal is on Cruise Control

Nadal entered the tournament as the No. 1 seed and as the biggest name at this event. He was at +150 to win the tournament and to no one’s surprise, he’s been on cruise control. Nadal has cut through the competition with ease, which includes No. 7 Grigor Dimitrov, who he beat in the semis on Friday.

Dimitrov was easily the highest-ranked player he faced as he is No. 22 in the world; the other three opponents are all ranked 50th or lower. It doesn’t matter who he’s faced, though, as Nadal has smoked everyone on the court. He hasn’t lost a single set and has lost 20 games in total.

Nadal vs Fritz Statistical Comparison

12-3 2020 Record 7-5
0 2020 Singles Titles 0
0 Head-to-Head Record 0
0 Sets Lost at 2020 Abierto Mexicano Telcel Tournament 2
1 Seeded Players Defeated at Abierto Mexicano Telcel Tennis Tournament 1

What’s the Best Bet?

There’s really not much of a discussion to be had here. Nadal isn’t always a sure thing at smaller events – especially on non-clay surfaces – but it typically depends on his form and his health. As of right now, there is no evidence whatsoever that he is anything short of stellar.

To put it in perspective, the 20 games he’s lost across his four matches means he’s winning by an average score of 6-2, 6-2. Sure, Fritz has been decent at this event but he’s lost 38 games. His best win was over the journeyman Isner, who is at about his level, and he needed three sets to do so. Fritz also went the distance against John Millman in the first round.

These two players have never met before but it’s a pretty safe bet that barring some miracle, Fritz will be 0-1 in the head-to-head record after this one. Even though we’ll likely be sliding one ball on the abacus in Nadal’s favor after this one, if you don’t like the juice on Nadal, bet the under here as this should be quick and painless.

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David Golokhov

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