Liga NOS Matchday 16 Odds & Picks: Benfica Over Offers Value

Benfica are massive favorites against an overmatched Aves on Friday, but could there be value in the Over? @SLBenfica (Twitter)

• League leaders Benfica (-1149) are overwhelming favorites at home against last-place Aves (+3300), in what will likely be the debut of flashy new German signing Julian Weigl for the hosts
• Moreirense (+725) will look to engineer a signature home upset as they host a surging second-place Porto (-233)
• Maritimo (+330) could give Guimaraes (-123) all they can handle as the latter head to the island of Madeira on Sunday

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Another week of action continues in Portugal’s Primeira Liga this week during Matchday 16 which kicks off with three matches on Friday afternoon and six more this weekend. We take a look at three of the best bets to make this weekend.

Benfica vs. CD Aves Odds

All odds taken Jan. 9

It’s a matchup that should not be close: First-place Benfica (14-0-1) has won 12 games on the hop entering Friday’s date with Desportivo Aves (2-0-13), a club that has experienced nearly the exact opposite reality thus far in 2019-20.

As Benfica have steamrolled opponents from the bottom-third of the Liga NOS to the tune of 17-2 this season, Aves have been dealt loss after loss.

Whether it’s a VAR decision, defensive breakdown or, more recently, an inability to score goals, Aves are a deserved last place outfit and sit eight points from safety.

Benfica has scored a boatload of goals this season (38) — eight more than anyone else in Portugal — while their visitors Friday have managed a respectable 15 in as many games.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=videoseries

Also important to note: Aves have conceded the most goals (31) in the league, and their last two defeats (0-1, 0-1) came against Setubal and Gil Vicente teams which aimed to stifle games. That won’t be the case at the Luz on Friday.

Pick: O 3.5 (-128)

Moreirense vs. Porto Odds

On paper, this is another non-starter: Porto (12-2-1) have dropped points in just 20% of their games this season, while Moreirense (4-5-6) are the definition of average.

However, a closer look hints at the possibility of Friday’s hosts getting a result against their big, bad, blue visitors; Moreirense earned two solid results (W v. Braga, D v. Porto) at home against major opposition last season, while Porto has battled inconsistent performances at points this season.

We aren’t saying Moreirense is going to shock the league and get a result — though they might — but we do believe there is value to be had in backing the hosts to keep things close. They are undefeated in four (2-2-0) at home since a 2-1 loss to Benfica back in September.

Pick: Moreirense +1, +1.5 (-120)

Maritimo vs. Guimaraes Odds

Teams no. 5-14 in the Liga NOS are currently separated by just four points.

At either end of that spectrum lie Guimaraes (5-6-4), fresh off a spirited but unsuccessful European campaign and in 5th place, and Maritimo (4-6-5) whose one less victory leaves them halfway down the table from the former.

The two teams collide in Sunday’s marquee matchup, with Maritimo — fresh off a pair of 1-0 wins against respectable opponents in Rio Ave and Boavista — a strong candidate to get a result against Ivo Vieira’s skilled but inconsistent Guimaraes team.

Sunday’s visitors have also drawn their last three games in league play, while Maritimo come in on a roll with points in five-straight (2-3-0) home matches.

At better than even-money, it’s just a play that makes sense.

Pick: Maritimo +0.5 (+103)

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