How the Weather Will Affect Betting Super Bowl 54


Hard Rock Stadium

The Super Bowl should be played under good conditions on Sunday night. Photo from Phasornc (Wiki Commons)

  • Miami weather was unseasonably cool in the week leading up to Super Bowl 54
  • Game time temperatures on Feb. 2nd and forecast project to be 73 degrees and sunny
  • The only Super Bowl contested in rain was held in Miami in 2007

Super Bowl 54 fans need not worry. The unseasonably cold weather in Miami is expected to dissipate long before the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers take the field for the big game on Sunday, Feb. 2nd.

The forecast for game day is 73 degrees and sunny skies. That’s a bit below the mean averages for Miami of 77 degrees. However, it’s hardly cause for concern that the game will be impacted by severe weather of any kind.

The forecast for the day before the Super Bowl is for rain, though, and the the weather forecast can be a lot like the TV listings – always subject to change.

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal at Bovada
San Francisco 49ersEVEN+1.5 (-110)Over 55.0 (-105)
Kansas City Chiefs-120-1.5 (-110)Under 55.0 (-115)

Odds taken Jan. 27th

Just one Super Bowl game was played in the rain, and that was in Miami. In 2007, the Indianapolis Colts beat the Chicago Bears 29-17 while playing in a torrential downpour.

Super Bowl 41: Miami Drowned Machine

The ninth Super Bowl to be contested in Miami, it was the first where the weather did not cooperate. The temperature at kickoff was 67 degrees in monsoon-like rainfall that continued throughout the game.

Both teams felt the impact of the poor playing conditions. In total, there were eight turnovers.

The Colts lost both of their fumbles. Chicago fumbled four times, losing three of them. Bears quarterback Rex Grossman was intercepted twice. His counterpart, Peyton Manning of the Colts, was picked off once.

The wet conditions made the run game vital. For just the third time in Super Bowl history, there were two players who rushed for over 100 yards. Dominic Rhodes of the Colts rambled for 113 yards. Chicago’s Thomas Jones gained 112 yards on the ground.

Indy’s passing attack, #2 in the NFL, was limited to 247 yards, well below the Colts’ season average of 269. 2 yards per game. The kicking game was also impacted significantly by the vast amounts of precipitation. Indy’s Adam Vinatieri missed an extra point. Long snappers struggled to grip the ball. Just one field goal in the game was longer than 29 yards.

The final score was under the total of 49.

The game did involve one unique weather-related moment, though. That was the site of Prince performing Purple Rain in the rain during the halftime show.

Miami Weather Generally Cooperative

Miami will be playing host to its record 11th Super Bowl when the Niners and Chiefs take the field. That’s one more than New Orleans. In general, Mother Nature has cooperated with South Beach to make for hospitable Super Bowl playing conditions.

Miami Super Bowl History

Super BowlResultWinnerTotalTemperatureWind (MPH)
2Green Bay Packers 33 Oakland Raiders 14FavoriteOver7412
3New York Jets 16 Baltimore Colts 7UnderdogUnder6612
5Baltimore Colts 16 Dallas Cowboys 13FavoriteUnder5911
10Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Dallas Cowboys 17UnderdogOver4918
13Pittsburgh Steelers 35 Dallas Cowboys 31FavoriteOver7118
23San Francisco 49ers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 16UnderdogUnder7217
29San Francisco 49ers 49 San Diego Chargers 26UnderdogOver736
33Denver Broncos 34 Atlants Falcons 19UnderdogOver7411
41Indianapolis Colts 29 Chicago Bears 17FavoriteUnder6710
44New Orleans Saints 31 Indianapolis Colts 17UnderdogUnder606

The average game temperature for Miami’s 10 Super Bowls is 66.5 degrees. Five times it’s gone over 70 degrees and just once has it dipped below 50. The average wind conditions are 12.1 miles per hour. The wind has never blown harder than 18 mph during a Miami Super Bowl.

2020 NBA Championship Odds Tracker

Super Bowl Weather History

The NFL used to have in place a steadfast rule regarding Super Bowl bids. The host city must show an average temperature above 50 degrees on the scheduled date of the game in order to be eligible.

That stipulation was waived in 2010. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell believes that football is a game meant to be played in the elements.

Backing up this belief, in 2014 the Super Bowl between Seattle and Denver was awarded to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, home to the New York Giants and Jets.

It was a risky proposition but the weather was shockingly cooperative. Game-time temperature was 49 degrees, 10-15 degrees above normal for that time of year.

The day after the game, the area was hit with eight inches of snow.

Frosty Super Bowl Invites

The coldest Super Bowl on record was played in 1972 at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans. The Dallas Cowboys downed the Miami Dolphins 24-3 in 39-degree temperatures.

The three coldest postseason games in NFL history were all conference championship games. Two of them took place on the frozen tundra of Green Bay’s Lambeau Field.

In the 2007 NFL Championship, the temperature was a frosty minus-1 as the Packers played host to the Giants. The Giants won 17-14 in overtime on a 47-yard Lawrence Tynes field goal.

At Cincinnati’s Riverfront Stadium, the thermometer showed minus-9 at kickoff time for the 1981 AFC Championship between the Bengals and San Diego Chargers. That was bad enough but 35 mph winds produced a wind chill of -59. The warm-weather Chargers were clearly out of their element, losing 27-7 in a game dubbed the Freezer Bowl.

The most famous cold-weather NFL playoff game was the 1967 NFL Championship. Green Bay beat the Dallas Cowboys 21-17 in minus-13 temperatures.

Which Team Benefits Most from Bad Weather?

Cold weather hasn’t impacted the Chiefs at all. Factoring in the wind chill, KC put up 51 points on Houston (19 degrees) and 35 on Tennessee (5 degrees) during the postseason.

The 49ers haven’t experienced cold but they’ve dealt with rain. And not well at all.

Facing the pitiful Washington Redskins in wet playing conditions, San Francisco scraped by 9-0. The 49ers ran the ball 39 times for 137 yards. QB Jimmy Garoppolo passed for just 146 yards.

Logically, a rainy field would benefit a team like the 49ers with their power running game. But it’s difficult to make a comparable when the Chiefs haven’t dealt with the wet.

In fact, so far this season, nothing’s proven able to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense.

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Robert Duff



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