Fritz vs Isner Odds & Pick: Mexican Open Semifinals


John Isner returning a ball.

John Isner is favored over Taylor Fritz in the 2020 Mexican Open semifinals. Photo by Emmett Hume (Wikimedia).

  • Taylor Fritz and No. 5 John Isner will meet in the semifinals at the 2020 Abierto Mexicano Telcel Open on February 28
  • Both Fritz and Isner have yet to face a single ranked opponent in this tournament.
  • Get the odds and prediction for this semifinals match below

The 2020 Mexican Open has reached the semifinals with No. 1 Rafael Nadal and No. 7 Grigor Dimitrov meeting on one side and unseeded Taylor Fritz and No. 5 John Isner meeting in the other. In the all-American matchup, Isner is a small favorite. Is he a good bet to advance and face the Dimitrov-Nadal winner in the final?

John Isner vs Taylor Fritz Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline
John Isner -1.0 (+105) -119 25.5 (-128)
Taylor Fritz +1.0 (-125) -101 25.5 (+108)

Odds taken Feb. 28th

Fritz Run Benefits from Kyrgios Injury

Three of the four semifinalists at this tournament are seeded players but Fritz is the lone player who isn’t. His run got a big boost from a couple of key seeds falling in his section of the bracket. No. 6 Nick Kyrgios, the defending champ, retired in the first round with a wrist injury. No. 4 Felix Auger-Aliassime lost in the second round.

That left Fritz facing John Millman in the opening round, Ugo Humbert in the second round and Kyle Edmund in the third round. He has yet to play a seeded player and hasn’t met a player ranked higher than No. 40 in the world. For what it’s worth, Isner is currently ranked No. 20.

2020 UEFA Champions Cup Odds Tracker

Isner Has Also Had an Easy Path

As much as Fritz has had a fairly easy ride so far, so has Isner. The only seed he could have faced in his side of the bracket is No. 2 Alex Zverev but he lost in the second round to a qualifier. That means Isner has played a Wild Card (first round), a qualifier (second round) and a qualifier (third round) to get to the semifinals.

Taking a look at the overall ATP rankings, Isner hasn’t faced anyone that’s higher than No. 66. He’s been pushed by these low-ranked players, though. Even though he’s only dropped one set so far, he has lost 32 games in three matches, which is eight more than Fritz has lost en route to the semifinals.

Isner vs Fritz Statistical Comparison

7-6 2020 Record 6-5
0 2020 Singles Titles 0
2 Head-to-Head Record 1
1 Sets Lost at 2020 Abierto Mexicano Telcel Tournament 1
0 Seeded Players Defeated at Abierto Mexicano Telcel Tennis Tournament 0

What’s the Best Bet?

It’s early in the year, so we don’t know a ton about either player. Isner was 4-6 on the year before this tournament while Fritz was 3-5. Isner holds the head-to-head lead at 2-1 but keep in mind that he’s a veteran on the ATP Tour at 34 years of age. Fritz is the one who is more on the rise as he’s just 22.

In terms of the side, this is pretty much a coin flip in my view. Isner is the more experienced player and I would say probably wins, but Fritz is about his equal. We can see it in the history between the two as even though Isner is 2-1 in the head-to-head meetings, Isner has won 42 games in those contests while Fritz has won 37.

That being the case, I actually like the over 25.5 here. We could see something like a 7-6, 7-6 result we saw the last time these two faced off, which was in Aucklund last year on the hard courts, or we could see a three-set match, which should take us “Over”.

Isner was at +1400 to win this tournament originally and Fritz was at +3300. I’m expecting an Isner win in the range of 7-6, 3-6, 6-4. That makes the “Over” the best bet in my view.

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David Golokhov

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