Fight 2 Win 145 Odds and Picks


Fight to Win 145 image

Fight to Win 145 takes place tonight (Friday, June 26) at 6:45 pm ET.

  • Fight 2 Win 145 grappling event goes down tonight (Friday, June 26)
  • Alexandre Ribeiro takes on Gabriel Almeida in the main event
  • Garry Tonon competes in the co-main

One of the world’s premier grappling promotions, Fight 2 Win, is back tonight (Friday, June 26th) in Dallas, Texas for F2W 145. The event streams live on FloGrappling starting at 6:45 pm ET.

The main event is a battle between two high-level Brazilian grapplers: Alexandre Ribeiro vs. Gabriel Almeida. In the co-main event, ONE Championship fighter Gary Tonon, one of the top MMA prospects in the world, battles Osvaldo Moizinho.

The table below shows the odds for the main and co-main event followed by a breakdown of the two matches.

Fight 2 Win 145 Odds

Alexandre Ribeiro-210
Gabriel Almeida+180
Gary Tonon-430
Osvaldo Moizinho+360

Odds as of June 26.

How Will Ribeiro Do Coming out of Retirement?

Alexandre Ribeiro has not competed in a grappling event since 2015 when he drew against Keenan Cornelius. The Brazilian was one of the top grapplers when he stepped away, winning the ADCC worlds in 2007 and 2009.

Ribeiro has also won seven world jiu-jitsu championships and is 2-0 in MMA with knockout wins over Takashi Sugiura and Keiichiro Yamamiya. This will be the first time the 39-year-old competes in the Fight 2 Win promotion.

Gabriel Almeida is the younger competitor and has been competing often. His last grappling match was at Fight 2 Win 140 where he scored a decision win over Roberto Jimenez. In his grappling career, he holds a notable win over Rafael Paganini.  He also competed in the 2019 ADCC worlds but lost on Day 1 to Josh Hinger by submission.

On paper, Alexandre Ribeiro is the better grappler, but how will he do after not competing for five years is the major question. He also has not competed under the Fight 2 Win rule-set, which Almeida has.

I am surprised Ribeiro is this big of a favorite as he is almost 40 and has not competed in half a decade. I do consider the 39-year-old the favorite, but would have set the line around -160; we have seen him be choked out in grappling events before and he hasn’t competed in five years.

My pick is Alexandre Ribeiro to win, but it’s a stay away at -210.

Pick: Alexandre Ribeiro (-210)

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Will Garry Tonon Continue His Grappling Success?

Gary Tonon, like Almeida, has competed in Fight 2 Win before, beating world-class grappler Davi Ramos at Fight 2 Win 140. The 28-year-old had success at the 2019 ADCC worlds where he submitted Mateusz Gamrot, Dante Leon, and beat Renato Canuto by decision.

He dropped a decision to JT Torres and then, on Day 2, lost to Gordon Ryan, who is arguably the best grappler in the world.

In his MMA career, Tonon is undefeated (5-0) and all his wins have come by submission. He could very well be fighting for the belt next time out.

Osvaldo Moizinho, meanwhile, is a Fight 2 Win grappling veteran. He is currently 3-0 in the promotion and, last time out, beat AJ Agazarm by decision. He also submitted Richard Nogueira and has a decision win over Tiago Barros. The Brazilian lost by decision against Renato Canuto, a fighter Tonon beat.

The resumes detailed above explain why Tonon is such a big favorite. He is considered by some to be a top-five grappler in the world. His resume backs it up and should be able to score another win under the Fight 2 Win banner with a submission victory over Moizinho.

Right now, I still think there is value even though Tonon is a -430 favorite. I would make the moneyline closer -600. It is almost a guarantee he will win and should get it done early.

Pick: Garry Tonon (-430)

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Cole Shelton



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