Duke vs Michigan State Picks & Odds; Blue Devils 12-3 All-Time Against Sparty


MSU Spartans head coach Tom Izzo running practice.

Tom Izzo's Spartans are ranked third at KenPom, three spots ahead of Duke. Photo: public domain.

  • #10 Duke was upset by Stephen F. Austin last week, 85-83, as 28-point favorites
  • Preseason #1 MSU lost two of its first five games
  • Duke is 8-2 against Michigan State in their last 10 meetings

The #10 Duke Blue Devils (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-2 O/U) will come into East Lansing to face the #11 Michigan State Spartans (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS, O/U 3-3-1) as part of the 2019 ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

Michigan State is coming off back-to-back wins against UCLA and Georgia in the 2019 Maui Invitational after losing to Kentucky and Va. Tech in two of its first five games. Duke won their last matchup 83-70 over Winthrop but dropped their previous game to Stephen F. Austin as heavy 28-point favorites.

In the Duke vs Michigan State odds, the Spartans are listed as 6.0-point favorites over the Blue Devils.

#10 Duke vs #11 Michigan State Odds

TeamSpread at BetOnlineTotal
Duke+6.0 (+102)O 146.5 (-110)
Michigan State-6.0 (-122)U 146.5 (-110)

Odds taken December 2, 2019.

Duke will be without star freshman guard Cassius Stanley after he injured his hamstring against Winthrop.

Last Year’s Matchup

In the 2019 Elite Eight, Michigan State upset Duke 68-67 as 2.5-point underdogs behind Cassius Winston’s 20 points and 10 assists. Former Duke stars Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett combined for 45 of Duke’s 67 points.

Duke topped Michigan State in almost every statistical category except for one very important one, turnovers. The Blue Devils had 17 turnovers to the Spartans seven. This was just Michigan State’s third time beating Duke in their 15-game history.

Duke’s Young Stars

Duke, yet again, has a cast of talented young freshmen leading this team. Vernon Carey Jr. (18.4 PPG), Cassius Stanley (12.4 PPG), and Matthew Hurt (10.9 PPG) have led this Blue Devils team to their 7-1 record, along with sophomore guard Tre Jones.

However, Stanley is out, which means his role will need to be filled by players like Wendell Moore Jr. and Joey Baker.


Other than one bad loss to Stephen F. Austin, the Blue Devils have played some solid basketball thus far. However, other than beating Kansas 68-66 in their season-opener, Duke’s schedule has been relatively easy. The Blue Devils have played the 205th-hardest schedule in the country.

With Williamson and Barrett taking their talents to the NBA, Duke’s offense has not been the same. According to the KenPom Ratings, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating is 109.8, which is 21st in the country. It might seem like their offense is rolling, but when you score 105 points on Central Arkansas in your third game of the year, it tends to inflate your offensive stats.

2019 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker

Despite playing bad teams, their defense has been stellar across the board. Duke is allowing just 64.8 points per game, with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rating of 85.6, which is fourth-best in the nation. Nonetheless, they are going to have trouble containing the 2019 Big Ten Player of the Year, Cassius Winston.

Cassius and His Cast

Cassius Winston has been superb so far this year averaging 17.9 points, and 6.0 assists per game this season. Winston has helped the Spartans to a 5-2 record, losing two tough games against Kentucky and Virginia Tech. Michigan State has beaten the likes of Seton Hall, Georgia, and UCLA.

Xavier Tillman (12.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG) and Aaron Henry (12.2 PPG) are Winston’s main supporting cast in this deadly offense. 80.9 points per game might not seem like a “deadly offense”, but Michigan State has played some stout defenses. That is why they have the highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating in the country at 115.2.

Unlike Duke’s easy schedule, Michigan State has the 38th hardest rated schedule in the country. This will be the Spartans’ third matchup against a Top 25 team in the country this season. Michigan State’s defense has been solid this year as well, allowing just 64.7 points per game.

Best Bet

The Tom Izzo versus Mike Krzyzewski saga continues on Tuesday night. A game that will definitely have an impact on the 2020 NCAA Championship odds.

Michigan State is 5-4-1 ATS versus Duke in their last ten matchups, with the over hitting in eight of those ten games. However, Duke is 8-2 SU against Michigan State in those ten games. Duke is also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against a Big Ten team.

Despite these fancy statistics, I believe Michigan State’s reign over Duke is done. The Spartans are more experienced, and with Cassius Stanley out for Duke, there offense will falter.

The Spartans are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 home games. Michigan State is going to come into this matchup prepared and confident after playing three tough games against UCLA, Georgia, and Virginia Tech.

Best Bet: Michigan State -6.0

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Ryan Sura



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