Democrats Nearly Pull Even with GOP in Latest 2020 Presidential Election Odds

  • Elizabeth Warren has become the favorite to win the Democratic nomination
  • The Dems, as a party, are almost even with the Republicans in the odds to win the next Presidential Election
  • The economy is likely to be the key to success or failure for President Trump in 2020

We’re still well over a year away from the 2020 United States Presidential Election. However, the race is on as the Democrats try to figure out a way to unseat Donald Trump. The latest Presidential Election odds show that the Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck.

Are the oddsmakers right about this being a coin flip or is there value one way or the other?

2020 United States Presidential Election Odds

Winning PartyOdds at BetOnline*

*Odds taken 08/29/19.

Democratic Nominees Scuffle

It feels like nervous times in the Democratic Party as things are not going as planned. Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead in the polls but his lead has shrunken quite a bit. His lead over Elizabeth Warren in the Democratic Nomination odds is gone.

That’s mostly due to shaky efforts in the debates followed by a number of gaffes on the campaign trail.

For example, he’s mixed up states that he’s been in and misspoken when referring to which states the most recent mass shootings took place in. Beyond that, progressives are not very enthused with him.

On the other hand, the two candidates who are hottest on his heels are Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Both bring big, bold ideas to the table but they are much further to the left than Biden.

A lot of moderates might not want to vote for Sanders or Warren as they would bring big changes to the country.

It’s still early in the process but there’s no one candidate that everybody can unite around. That’s why some people like Mark Cuban are thinking about running as there is still an opening. We’ll see if that changes as we move through the campaign.

It’s All About The Economy

For President Trump, it really comes down to one thing: how’s the economy doing? As of this moment, unemployment is very low (3.7% as of July) and at an all-time low for African-Americans and Hispanics. Wages have also been on the rise.

If this continues, he’s very likely to be reelected. Incumbents with strong economies are almost always reelected.

At the same time, there has been some recent concern in relation to a recession. The 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield death-crossed the two-year. Traditionally, this is a very good sign that a recession is coming within the next 12-18 months. That's partially why the 2020 Presidential Election odds have evened.

However, there are a lot of factors in play here. To start, consumer spending and a lot of other fundamentals look really strong. Will this spread continue or is it just a short-term inversion? What will the coming jobs reports look like?

The biggest sag on the economy is the situation with China. If a trade deal is reached, the economy should roar in 2020 – more than it already it is now. If a deal isn’t reached with China, this will continue to drag down the economy and bring in concerns about a recession.

What’s The Best Bet?

At this point, I’d bet on Trump. The economy could be cracking but we really don’t know for sure. What we do know is that there aren’t many Democratic candidates that are exciting and uniting the entire party. The combination of those two factors leads me to believe that Trump is still in the lead.

If I was betting this now, I’d bet on Trump. However, it might make sense to wait a little bit to see who the Democratic Nominee is and how the economy looks in a few months. If the economy is in bad shape, betting against Trump will be easy money. If it’s in good shape, it’s hard to see him losing.

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