Coric vs Garin Odds and Pick: ATP Rio Open Semifinals

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Cristian Garin prepares to hit shot

Cristian Garin comes into his Rio Open semifinal against Borna Coric riding a seven-match winning streak and is the -140 favorite at Bovada. Photo by: robbiesauras (Flickr).

  • Chile’s Cristian Garin has won seven matches in a row as he faces Borna Coric as the -140 favorite in their ATP Rio Open semifinal on Saturday at 3 pm
  • Coric is in his first semifinal since September of last year
  • Will Garin continue his winning ways? Read on to see who you should back in this match

The hot hand belongs to Cristian Garin, but their brief history on opposite sides of the net is controlled by Borna Coric.

As these two players clash Saturday (3pm ET) in the semifinals of the ATP Rio Open, both displayed resiliency in surviving their quarterfinal matches.

Croatian Coric endured a four-hour rain delay before eliminating Italy’s Lorenzo Sonega 7-6(5), 6-3 . Sonega was leading 5-4 in the first set when the rains came.

Garin rallied for a 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 victory against Argentine qualifier Frederico Coria. It was his seventh straight match victory.

Bovada is opting to ride the streaking player in this match. The sportsbook has established Garin as the -140 favorite to win.

Cristian Garin vs Borna Coric Rio Open Semifinal Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total at Bovada
Cristian Garin -140 -1.5 (-110) Over 23.0 (-110)
Borna Coric +110 +1.5 (-120) Under 23.0 (-120)

Odds taken Feb. 22

Coric is playing in his first semifinal since last September at St. Petersburg.

Garin On a Roll

A poor start to the 2020 season saw Garin win just one of his first five matches. But since he put his feet on clay, the world #25 is on fire.

Garin’s seven-match win streak has all been fashioned on clay courts. This winning stretch, which matches a career-high, was launched as the Chilean player won the Cordoba Open in Argentina.

He went 4-0 there, beating Argentina’s Diego Schwartzman 2-6, 6-4, 6-0 in the final.

Garin, 23, has won all three of his ATP tournament titles since last April .

The Comeback Kid

It took Garin two hours and 15 minutes to dispatch world #116 Coria. But that’s becoming a pattern in his matches during this winning streak.

Garin has rallied to win five of his last six matches after dropping the first set.

The #3 seed in Rio, he lost seven of the first 10 games of his match against Coria before taking control. Even in the deciding set, Garin allowed Coria to stave off match point at 5-4 before regaining control.

Coric Working for It

The ride to the semis has also been a bumpy one for Coric. The world #32 has required at least one tiebreaker in each match he’s played in Rio.

He opened with a 7-6(5), 7-5 win over Argentina’s Juan Ignacio Londero in the Round of 32.

Fifth-seeded Coric was forced to grind out a 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(5) triumph over 19-year-old Thiago Wild to reach the quarterfinals.

It took Coric three match points to finally send Sonego packing. He successfully staved off all eight break points against Sonego.

Limited Head-to-Head History

Coric and Garin have faced each other just once previously as professionals.

That was last year in the quarterfinals at Hertogenbosch. Coric was a 6-7(4), 6-3, 7-6(6) winner in a tightly-fought match.

Coric vs Garin Stats

32 World Ranking 25
0 Rio Open Titles 0
2 ATP Titles 3
1-0 Head-to-Head 0-1
4-4 2020 Record 8-5
68.0 Service Games Won 75.0
9.0 Return Games Won 23.0

Their only meeting on a clay surface came in the junior tournament at the 2013 French Open. Garin was a 7-5, 6-2 winner in that match.

While Garin has won three titles in 11 months, the only tournament win by Coric since 2018 was last fall at St. Petersburg. He did capture his lone clay-court final appearance at Marrakech in 2017.

Go With the Hot Hand

Something clearly has clicked for Garin when playing on a clay surface over the past three seasons. He was a combined 25-32 (.438) in matches on clay in 2016-17. But since then, he’s gone 65-24. (.730).

Last season, Garin was 20-9 on clay courts. This year, he’s 7-0. All three of his career titles and all four of his career final appearances have come on clay surfaces.

Looking ahead, you might want to keep Garin in mind as a solid value bet at Roland Garros.

Coric isn’t a bad clay-court performer. He’s not posted a losing season on clay since 2012 (0-1). Coris is 11-7 (.611)  over the past two seasons and 48-38 (.558) during his career.

Still, you can’t ignore the player that’s on a hot streak. That’s Garin. His ability to dig deep, coupled with his feats of clay, make him the play here.

Pick: Cristian Garin (-140)

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Robert Duff

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