Bills vs Steelers Picks, Preview & Odds; 80% of Bettors Picking Buffalo, Sharps Like Pittsburgh

Steelers Stadium
The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers square off at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football. Photo by Tom Murphy VII (Wiki Commons). [CC License].
  • The Buffalo Bills clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football (8:20pm ET, Dec. 15)
  • The Steelers are 1-point home favorites, but the Bills are drawing 80% of the tickets
  • Pittsburgh has allowed 17 or fewer points in three straight games – read below for our betting prediction

If you like offense Sunday Night Football in Week 15 might not be for you. The 9-4 Buffalo Bills visit the 8-5 Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that features one of the lowest totals of the season. The over/under is currently set at just 36.5, and the Steelers are a 1-point home favorite.

Bills vs Steelers Odds & Betting Handle

Team Spread Betting Handle at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills +1.0 (-115) 66.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.0 (-105) 34.0%

All odds taken Dec. 14

According to BookMaker.eu, Buffalo is drawing 66% of the betting handle and a whopping 80% of the wagers thus far. Naturally, the pro’s are fading all the public Bills love, with 57% of the sharp money on Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won seven of their last eight, and are 4-1 ATS in their last five.

Their defense has been one of the best in the league since the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick, and should be able to follow a similar blueprint to previous elite defenses that have stymied Josh Allen.

Super Bowl 54 Odds Tracker

The Steel Curtain is Back

Pittsburgh leads the NFL in sacks and takeaways. They generate pressure at the league’s highest rate, and if there’s one way to slow down Josh Allen, it’s to pressure him like crazy. Allen’s three worst games of the season have been against the Patriots, Eagles and Ravens, three teams that excel at getting after the quarterback. Last week versus Baltimore, he completed just 43.6% of his passes, and had a paltry 3.7 yards per attempt.

14 of the 33 sacks Allen has taken have come against those three elite defenses, and those three games are the only ones in which he’s failed to record a completion percentage above 50%. The Bills feature an average pass blocking unit and will be hard pressed to contain all the studs on the Steelers defensive line.

Last week, they sacked Kyler Murray five times, forced three turnovers, and returned a punt for a touchdown. The superb play on that side of the ball has taken the pressure off Devlin “Duck” Hodges, who has been perfectly adequate in his three starts and is fresh off his best game of the season.

It isn’t Pretty, but it’s Effective

Hodges completed 84% of his passes in Week 14 versus Arizona, for 152 yards and touchdown. He added 34 yards rushing and improved to 3-0 as the Steelers starter, despite the team not scoring more than 24 points in any of his outings. Pittsburgh as a team ran for 140 yards and will get a big boost from the return of running back James Conner.

Conner has missed five of the last six games, and will bring some much needed stability to the Pittsburgh attack. It’s been a disappointing season for the running back, but he has flashed at times, and should be able to take advantage of a mediocre Bills run defense. Buffalo allows 105.3 rushing yards per game and a generous 4.56 yards per carry.

Stick with the Steelers on Home Turf

This is an incredibly tough spot for the Bills. On the road, in primetime, at the one of the toughest venues in football would be daunting for any team. Buffalo’s struggles against strong defenses is concerning, especially since no team is playing better defense at the moment than the Steelers.

Pittsburgh has allowed 17 or fewer points in three straight, and in six of their past eight. This is going to be an ugly, low scoring affair, but the sharps are on the Steelers, and you should be too.

Pick: Steelers -1 (-105)

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