Bayern Munich -600 Favorites to Win Title When German Bundesliga Returns on May 16
The German Bundesliga is set to resume on May 16 with Bayern Munich leading the way towards a potential eighth-straight title. Photo by @munich_times (Twitter)
- The German government approved the Bundesliga’s return on Wednesday, and Thursday the DFL announced a return to play on May 16
- Will Bayern Munich pick up from where they left off and continue their winning ways along to another title?
- Read on for an update on safety measures for the league’s return and recent odds to win the trophy
On Wednesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave the German Bundesliga the green light to resume play later this month. The decision then rested with the league as to restarting next week or the week after.
Today, the German Football Association (DFL) announced that both the Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga will return next Saturday on May 16. The seasons will conclude by June 30, with the relegation/promotion playoff to be played in July.
As we look to the resumption of the first major soccer league to return (not counting other smaller leagues like the Belarus Premier League, Nicaragua Primera Division, South Korean K-League 1 and others), it’s German giants Bayern Munich who are heavy odds-on favorites in the 2020 Bundesliga odds to win the title. Bayern, currently in first place, have average odds of -533 and as short as -600.
Bettors will surely welcome a return of a league with recognizable teams and players.
German Bundesliga Odds
|Team||Odds to Win Without Bayern Munich||Odds to Win|
Odds taken May 7
Bundesliga Safety Precautions for Return to Play
Several precautions have been put in place, with the most obvious being that all games will be played behind closed doors with no fans. In Germany this is often referred to as “ghost games”. Mass gatherings in Germany are still banned until August 31.
May 16th is the confirmed start date for the Bundesliga ????
The countdown begins… pic.twitter.com/8rOuaw4O2g
— Amazon Prime Video Sport (@primevideosport) May 7, 2020
Players have been training for several weeks now and last week over 1,700 tests were done on players and staff. While ten players did test positive, they were placed in a 14-day quarantine. Another round of tests are to be made this week, with players to continue to be tested each week.
Social distancing practices must be adhered to during training and no more than 322 people will be allowed in stadiums for every game.
The Bundesliga countdown is on ???????? pic.twitter.com/nUGZj4OeD2
— B/R Football (@brfootball) May 7, 2020
Where the Table Stands
When we last left the German Bundesliga back on March 11 before it was shut down on March 13, teams had each played either 24 or 25 matches. Only Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen had played 24.
While some leagues like the EPL, have a title race which is all but officially decided, Germany’s title race is still very tight and several positions for the Champions League, Europa League and relegation are still being contested.
Currently at the summit resides Bayern Munich with 55 points. They are just four ahead of second-place Borussia Dortmund with 51 and five ahead of third-place RB Leipzig with 50. But not too far behind those top three sit Borussia Monchengladbach at 49 points and Bayer Leverkusen with 47.
Borussia Monchengladbach fans have paid for cardboard cutouts of themselves to fill the stadium if Bundesliga matches resume behind closed doors.
2,000 are already in place with at least another 6,000 on the way! pic.twitter.com/GRhAuaXMAk
— Footy Accumulators (@FootyAccums) April 26, 2020
Bayern had been blistering hot having won 10 of their past 11 league matches, drawing the other. During that stretch they also outscored their opponents 38-6.
Their closest competitors, Dortmund had been on a torrid pace themselves having won their past four league matches and seven of their past eight, outscoring opponents 27-9. They did lose their last match in the Champions League to PSG, thus eliminating them from the competition.
Right, where were we? ????????
1️⃣ | 55pts | Bayern Munich
2️⃣ | 51pts | Borussia Dortmund
3️⃣ | 50pts | RB Leipzig
4️⃣ | 49pts | Borussia Monchengladbach
5️⃣ | 47pts | Bayer Leverkusen pic.twitter.com/bgBT4Lcxud
— Goal (@goal) May 6, 2020
Contenders Strength of Schedule
Let’s take a look at the remaining schedules for the top five contenders. With each team having nine matches remaining, they all have either four or five home matches left. Though only Dortmund and Leipzig have five.
I think wiping Leverkusen out of the mix is probably a safe bet. Not only are they furthest behind, but of the top five teams they have the toughest average remaining schedule. They play four teams ranked tenth or higher with an average opponent ranking of ninth. Additionally, they play their first two on the road, plus three of the first four.
Bayern Munich and Leroy Sane have agreed to a five-year contract, according to @SPORTBILD ????
A fee between Bayern and Manchester City has not yet been agreed on. pic.twitter.com/3QlVXkEpF0
— B/R Football (@brfootball) May 5, 2020
Next in line are the top two sides Bayern Munich (9.11) and Dortmund (9.78) in average ranking of remaining opponents. Bayern should be able to ease into their schedule with matches against the 11th and 12th-best teams in Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt. Their third match back could potentially decide the title race when Bayern travel to Dortmund on either May 26 or 27. They’ll also play away to fourth-place Gladbach as well. Overall they face five teams inside the top eight.
Borussia Dortmund will need to hit the ground running with opening matches vs Schalke (6th), Wolfsburg (7th) and Bayern (1st). Their schedule sees them play five teams inside the top nine.
Let's pick up where you left off, Erling ⭐️pic.twitter.com/frR1eUCw43
— Borussia Dortmund (@BlackYellow) May 6, 2020
After that it’s both RB Leipzig and Borussia Monchengladbach who have the easiest of the remaining schedules for the top five sides. Leipzig play just four teams in the top ten, with an average ranking of 11.67. They are also the only team in the top five who won’t have to play Bayern Munich. Which is in some ways a positive, but also takes away an opportunity for them to win points off Bayern themselves. Leipzig had been on a tear in league play having only lost once in their past 16 Bundesliga matches.
Finally, Gladbach entered the coronavirus-forced stoppage playing strong themselves with just one loss in seven. They’ll resume a schedule that sees them playing teams ranked an average of 10.22 and four teams ranked eighth or higher. They have the benefit of playing both Werder Bremen and Paderborn — the 17th and 18th-placed teams. However, they do draw table-toppers Bayern on the road.
UEFA Euro 2021 Championship Odds Tracker
Bayern Munich’s four-point lead may well be enough to claim the title. If you’re betting against them, you’re likely hoping the layoff will cool them off and their weaker restart to the schedule may not have them ready for the showdown with BVB. Dortmund have defeated Bayern in each of their past two home meetings with them. They’ll know that game is their opportunity to cut the lead to possibly one point.
But if the 24 year's striker is to leave RB Leipzig, he'll be looking for a challenge outside of the Bundesliga.
Where do you think Timo Werner will play next season? pic.twitter.com/kfZJa8TcfN
— Muhammad Rabiu ???? (@Mrahmadne) May 2, 2020
If you think Dortmund can win over Bayern, grabbing the +550 odds for them to win the title is great value. You’ll then just be hoping Bayern can drop points maybe one more time before season’s end.
But the best bet may be to take RB Leipzig to win the league “without Bayern” at even-money. Their first opponents are ranked 8th, 15th, 13th, 10th and 18th and they’ll play BVB at home in the second-to-last match.
Best Bet: RBL to win without Bayern (+100)
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
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