2020 AFC East Predictions, Odds, Projected Records, and Win Totals

Bills Josh Allen walking to field

The New England Patriots have won the past 11 AFC East Division titles. However, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are the +120 favorites to take the division in 2020. Photo by: @BucSidelineGuy (Twitter).

  • The Buffalo Bills are +120 favorites to win the AFC East
  • The New England Patriots (+130) have won the past 11 AFC East titles
  • Buffalo’s last division title came in 1995

Believe it or not, there was time when teams other than the New England Patriots won the AFC East Division title. Some sports-betting sites are of the belief that the time could again be upon us.

The New England Patriots have won the past 11 AFC East titles. But as the opening kickoff of the NFL season approaches, New England is without quarterback Tom Brady for the first time in two decades, and the Pats are no longer considered the team to beat.

That tag is being applied to the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is the +120 favorite to be 2020 AFC East champions in the NFL Divisional odds and the the SBD NFL Win Probabilities agree that the Bills should be favored.

AFC East Odds and Win Totals

TeamDivision OddsWin TotalSBD Win Probability
Buffalo Bills+1209.59-7
New England Patriots+1308.58-8
Miami Dolphins+8006.56-10
New York Jets+8506.56-10

Odds as of Sept. 1st

The Bills haven’t been division champions since 1995.

Buffalo Bills

  • 2019 record: 10-6
  • Points per game: 19.6 (23rd)
  • Points allowed per game: 16.2 (2nd)
  • Yards per game: 330.2 (24th)
  • Yards allowed per game: 298.3 (3rd)
  • Turnover differential: +4 (T10)

A wildcard playoff team last season for the second time in three years, Buffalo lost its first postseason game to Houston in heartbreaking fashion.

Are the Bills ready to take the next step, win the division, and be a playoff performer, as opposed to a postseason participant?

QB Josh Allen has proven adequate over his two NFL seasons. With Buffalo’s stalwart defense, that’s good enough to get the Bills to the dance but it won’t make them homecoming king. Buffalo supplied Allen with a legitimate #1 receiving threat by acquiring Stefon Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings.

Bills Key Additions and Losses

Stefon Diggs WRFrank Gore RB
Josh Norman CBLaAdrian Waddle OT
Mario Addison DEStephen Hauschka K
AJ Klein LBJordan Phillips DT
Tyler Matakevich LBShaq Lawson DE
Quinton Jefferson DEKevin Johnson CB
Vernon Butler DTSenorise Perry RB
Evan Boehm CStar Lotulelei DT*
Brian Winters GEJ Gaines CB*

*COVID-19 opt outs.

Defensively, Buffalo rates up there with the NFL’s elite groups. It all comes down to the offense for the Bills. If Allen moves ahead in his development, great things await.

Prediction 10-6 (first)

New England Patriots

  • 2019 record: 12-4
  • Points per game: 26.3 (7th)
  • Points allowed per game: 14.2 (1st)
  • Yards per game: 354.0 (15th)
  • Yards allowed per game: 275.9 (1st)
  • Turnover differential: +21 (1st)

Is there life after Brady? Patriots fans are about to find out.

In truth, New England rode the NFL’s stiffest and most opportunistic defense to success last season. But several pieces of that group are gone.

Linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins departed via free agency, while LB Dont’a Hightower and strong safety Patrick Chung were among a league-high eight COVID-19 opt outs.

Patriots Key Additions and Losses

Cam Newton QBTom Brady QB
Brian Hoyer QBKyle Van Noy LB
Beau Allen DTJamie Collins LB
Adrian Phillips SStephen Gostkowski K
Brandon Copeland LBDanny Vitale FB*
Justin Rohrwasser KMarcus Cannon T*
Tyler Gauthier CBrandon Bolden RB*
Ben Braden GPatrick Chung S*
Xavier Williams DTDont’a Hightower LB*

*COVID-19 opt outs.

The Pats are handing the keys to their offense to QB Cam Newton. Yes, he’s a former NFL MVP. He’s also 0-8 in his last eight starts, with nine touchdown passes against 10 interceptions.

Prediction: 9-7 (2nd)

Miami Dolphins

  • 2019 record: 5-11
  • Points per game: 19.1 (25th)
  • Points allowed per game: 30.9 (32nd)
  • Yards per game: 310.0 (27th)
  • Yards allowed per game: 397.8 (30th)
  • Turnover differential: -10 (27th)

Who were the real Dolphins: the team that opened 0-7, or the team that finished 5-4?

Dolphins Key Additions and Losses

Tua Tagovailoa QBJohn Jenkins DT
Jordan Howard RBJ’Marcus Webb T
Byron Jones CBDeon Lacey LB
Kyle Van Noy LBEvan Boehm G
Ted Karras CTaco Charlton DE
Ereck Flowers GNick O’Leary TE
Emmanuel Ogbah DEReshad Jones S
Shaq Lawson DEDaniel Kilgore C
Matt Breida RBAqib Talib CB
Kamu Grugier-Hill LBAllen Hurns WR*
Kavon Frazier SAlbert Wilson WR*

*COVID-19 opt outs.

Miami rebuilt its offensive line, added a quality pass rusher in Shaq Lawson, and bolstered the run game via the acquisitions of Matt Breida and Jordan Howard.

When will the offense be given over from veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa?

Going to a rookie QB with a defense that the was the NFL’s most porous during the 2019 campaign, the Fins are still a long way from being relevant again.

Prediction: 6-10 (third)

New York Jets

  • 2019 record: 7-9
  • Points per game: 17.3 (31st)
  • Points allowed per game: 22.4 (16th)
  • Yards per game: 273.0 (32nd)
  • Yards allowed per game: 323.1 (7th)
  • Turnover differential: -4 (23rd)

The Jets opened 1-7 and then closed 6-2 in the second half. Injuries to QB Sam Darnold greased the first-half slide.

They’ll need a rebound from RB  Le’Veon Bell, who was a disappointment in his first season with the Jets.

Dolphins Key Additions and Losses

Joe Flacco QBRobby Anderson WR
Frank Gore RBBilal Powell RB
Breshad Perriman WRKelvin Beachum T
George Fant TBrandon Shell T
Greg Van Roten GTom Compton G
Pierre Desir STrumaine Johnson CB
Mekhi Becton TJamal Adams S
Denzel Mims WRCJ Mosley LB*

*COVID-19 opt out.

Defensively, All-Pro safety Jamal Adams was traded to Seattle.  Linebacker CJ Mosley opted out of the season.

Prediction: 4-12 (4th)

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Robert Duff



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