Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.
Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the Genesis Invitational.
For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.
Odds courtesy of Bodog
My Favorite Pick: Justin Thomas +1000
Thomas is back at the Genesis with revenge on his mind. After rounds of 66, 65 and 65 a year ago, Thomas found himself with a four-stroke lead entering the final round on Sunday. The American shot a closing-round 75 to ultimately finish second to J.B. Holmes.
Thomas’ return to Riviera comes at a good time. He notched a T-3 at the Waste Management and wins at the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges and the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He’s going up against a loaded field, but I like Thomas to finish the job he started a year ago and claim the hardware.
My Second Favorite Pick: Bubba Watson +1800
Watson, a three-time winner at the Genesis, has fond memories of Riviera. The 41-year-old has four other top-15 finishes at this venue and is coming in fresh off a T-6 showing at the Farmers and a T-3 at the Waste Management.
With Bubba, he’s often at the top of the leaderboard or out of the mix completely, so a pre-tournament wager on him does come with some risk. But I think his past success here makes him an excellent value play at +1800.
My Third Favorite Pick: Alex Noren +10000
Noren is my long-shot pick this week for a variety of reasons. In his lone appearance at the Genesis, the Swede finished T-16 in 2018.
In his 20 rounds on the PGA Tour this season, 17 of them have been in the 60s, leaving him fifth on tour adjusted scoring. He also ranks 12th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, third in scrambling and inside the top 20 in par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring.