Odds to Win the 2020 Northern Trust

The PGA Tour FedExCup playoffs are set to begin this week at the Northern Trust. The top 125 players in the FedExCup standings will compete at TPC Boston and the top 70 after this weekend will move on to the next round at the BMW Championship next week.

Online sportsbook Bodog has Bryson DeChambeau set as the +1200 favorite to win the Northern Trust. He won the last PGA Tour event at TPC Boston, the Dell Technologies Championship in 2018. Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas are next on the odds list, all at +1400.

Tiger Woods is set to make his third start since the PGA Tour returned to action in June. He finished T40 at the Memorial and then T37 at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. Bodog has his odds set at +4000 to capture his record-setting 83rd win on the PGA Tour this weekend.

If you’re new to betting on the sport, check out our How to Bet on Golf guide for everything you need to know.

Below, I’m going to give you my course breakdown for TPC Boston, my key stats to look out for when deciding who to bet on, and my top three picks for this weekend’s event.

Odds as of August 17 at Bodog

Previous Winners at TPC Boston

TPC Boston was home to the Dell Technologies Championship (previously known as the Deutsche Bank Championship) for a number of years before the PGA Tour decided to shorten the playoffs in order to finish them before the start of football season. When that decision was made, the Dell Technologies Championship was scrapped and TPC Boston is now one of the rotating hosts for the Northern Trust.

Here are the past five winners at TPC Boston, all five for the Dell Technologies Championship:

TPC Boston Breakdown

This is one of the tougher courses on the PGA Tour to break down and identify key stats that are important to winning because it offers so many different options on how to approach it. We’ve seen long hitters, short but accurate golfers, good putters, bad putters and everything else win. One thing that can be said for certain is that approach play seems to be slightly more important than the short game. Golfers have seemed to win in the past without being extremely hot with the putter, but strong ball striking and approach play has been key for every winner.

It’s a par-71 course measuring at slightly over 7,200 yards. Continuing with the theme of unpredictability, there isn’t really any consistency in how long the holes play. There are par 4s that are reachable off the tee, but also a few lengthy par 4s. Two of the par 5s are reachable in two, but then one is an almost guaranteed layup. There was one thing that stuck out to me when looking at the course, and it’s that three of the four par 3s measure over 200 yards (more on that in a bit).

For any golf nerds out there who look at the type of grass used on the greens, it’s bentgrass at TPC Boston so I’d stay away from golfers who are famously known for their putting ability on poa annua like Dustin Johnson and Jason Day.

The Northern Trust Odds – My Three Best Bets:

Jon Rahm

*Top 5/10/20 odds will be included when they become available.

The Spaniard, who was the world No. 1 golfer after winning the Memorial Tournament a few weeks back before losing that spot to Justin Thomas, is primed to take a run at his fifth PGA Tour victory. When talking about pure ball strikers, there are very few who are as solid and consistent as Jon Rahm. He ranks in the top 10 in SG: Tee-to-Green, ball striking and birdie-to-bogey ratio, which will all be key this week. He’s also 31st in strokes gained: putting. 

So, his putter has the ability to get hot at any time. If he has one weak point heading into this week, it’s his proximity to the hole stat, ranking a lowly 186th. That hasn’t hurt him much in the past and his aforementioned putting ability should make up for his shortcomings in that category.

He also finished T4 at TPC Boston for the 2017 Dell Technologies Championship, so history shows he knows how to play this course. I’m going to take him to finish in the top five and top 10 this week.

Hideki Matsuyama

*Top 5/10/20 odds will be included when they become available.

A course where ball striking and the long game is extremely important but short game and putting is not? That’s basically the bat signal for Hideki Matsuyama. He ranks 197th in strokes gained: putting, but all he needs is an average weekend with the flat stick to put up low numbers. Second on the tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 27th in ball striking, and 16th in the birdie-to-bogey ratio are the biggest strengths for the Japanese golfer heading into this weekend.

He’s been within striking distance of winning at TPC Boston several times over the past few years. His results in his last four times competing at this track are: T4, T23, T15, T25. That’s four straight top-25 finishes. I’m going to take him to finish in the top five and top 20 this week.

Viktor Hovland

*Top 5/10/20 odds will be included when they become available.

With all the talk recently on Collin Morikawa (and some on Matthew Wolff), Viktor Hovland has started to fly under the radar in recent weeks among the tour’s young guns. I think now is the time to jump on the Norwegian golfer. His style fits this course to perfection: 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green, T30th in ball striking, T25th in proximity to the hole, 36th in birdie-to-bogey ratio, and T63rd in par-3 200-225 yards performance. His one weakness is putting, where he ranks 134th, but as I’ve mentioned a few times, golfers can get away with an average putter this weekend.

I’m going to bet on Hovland to finish in the top 20, but I wouldn’t blame anyone who decided to get more aggressive with him.

Here’s a helpful outline of some of the different betting options for the 2020 Northern Trust to help you decide which wager(s) would be best for you.

Pre-Tournament Bets

This is definitely the most common type of bet and the one you’re probably most familiar with. It’s easy, you’re just betting on who will win the tournament. Since the event starts on Thursday morning, it’s important to make sure you get your pre-tournament bet locked in before going to sleep Wednesday night. Most sportsbooks also offer live odds once the tournament begins.

Given that the field in a PGA Tour event has over 100 participants, it can be difficult to pick a winner, but if you are able to predict who wins, the payout will be a big one.

If you bet on the favorite Bryson DeChambeau this week, and he wins, a $100 bet would net a profit of $1,200 at +1200 odds.

If you’re looking for a bigger payout, you can take a shot at one of the big underdogs of the week. A $100 bet on Viktor Hovland, for example, would have a payout of $6,700.

Three-Ball Bets

A three-ball bet is a bet on a golfer to win the group that he’s playing with that day. If Brooks Koepka, Tiger Woods and Bryson DeChambeau are teeing off together, a three-ball bet would be on which of the three will finish with the best round score.

Three-ball bets are for that specific round only, so you don't have to wait for the tournament to completely finish to cash your bet.

In most tournaments, golfers will be sent out in pairings on Saturday's and Sunday's. In those cases, these bets are called two-ball bets. Some factors like weather delays or a large group that made the cut can cause the PGA Tour to go with threesomes for the weekend rounds as well.

Head-to-Head Bets

Head-to-head matchup bets are simple. You’re betting on one golfer to have a better score than another golfer. These bets can be for a single round only, or for the whole tournament.

For example, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm are both -115 at Bodog in a head-to-head matchup bet. That means the sportsbook is giving each man an equal shot of winning. If you bet on Thomas, you’ll need him to finish with a better score than Rahm to cash your bet.

These helpful pages will assist you in handicapping your golf wagers: