NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Redskins vs Cowboys

NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Redskins vs Cowboys

Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys (DAL -11, O/U 45.5)

Dallas will look to keep their playoff hopes alive on Sunday with a win over Washington. After dropping the potential division-clinching game in Philly last weekend, they’ll need help from those same Eagles if they want to win the NFC East and reach the postseason at 8-8. Washington will try to spoil their division rival’s hopes of reaching a second straight postseason, and will turn back to Case Keenum at quarterback after Dwayne Haskins exited Week 16’s contest with an ankle injury. Dallas is the heavy betting favorite entering Sunday, currently listed as 11-point favorites over Washington.

Our model believes the Cowboys should have no issues disposing of the Redskins, projecting a final score of 30.0 – 16.1 in favor of Dallas. With a projected margin of victory near 14 points and a spread of 11, we have a solid edge on the Cowboys in this ever-important Week 17 matchup. Our model suggests a $53 wager on DALLAS -11 for an $100 average bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 124-73 ATS (62.9%) for +26.04 units and 109-97 (52.9%) on O/Us for +17.52 units through 16 weeks of NFL, producing a profit of $4,356.

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Why will Dallas Cover the Spread?

  • The Cowboys lead the NFL with 7.9 yards per pass attempt on the season and are third with 63 pass plays of more than 20 yards. Washington has struggled against the pass all season, surrendering 7.0 yards per pass attempt (20th) while allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the NFL (31).
  • Washington has allowed opponents to score touchdowns in the red zone at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. Scoring touchdowns will be key for Dallas to cover an 11-point spread, and the Cowboys average 3.4 red zone trips per game (12th-most).
  • Dallas should have no issues keeping drives alive against a Washington defense that allows opponents to convert third downs at the highest rate in the NFL (48.58%). The Cowboys have been the third-best third down team in the league, converting 46.56% of their opportunities. Their success rate also spikes to 53.01% at home, while no other NFL team can claim a success rate above 50%.
  • Washington should struggle to keep pace with Dallas offensively. Their 5.0 yards per play ranks 27th in the NFL, while the Dallas defense has allowed just 5.2 yards per play on the season (8th-fewest). The Redskins have also been one of the worst teams on third down, converting 30.54% of their attempts, which is the second-lowest rate in the NFL. The Cowboys have stifled opponents on third down, permitting the fifth-lowest conversion rate (34.92%).
  • Washington should struggle to keep pace with Dallas offensively. Their 5.0 yards per play ranks 27th in the NFL, while the Dallas defense has allowed just 5.2 yards per play on the season (8th-fewest). The Redskins have also been one of the worst teams on third down, converting 30.54% of their attempts, which is the second-lowest rate in the NFL. The Cowboys have stifled opponents on third down, permitting the fifth-lowest conversion rate (34.92%).

How to Bet the Total in Redskins vs Cowboys

The Linebacker projects a final score of 30.0 – 16.1 in favor of the Cowboys. With 46.1 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 45.5, we have a slight edge on the over in this matchup. Our model suggests a $10 wager on OVER 45.5 for an $100 average bettor.

Need to Know Stats for Redskins vs Cowboys:

  • 449.7 total yards (DAL) vs. 256.8 total yards (WSH) – We’re projecting a large discrepancy in offensive output between these two teams, with a near 200-yard difference in total yards. It’s not a huge surprise since Dallas leads the NFL with 6.4 yards per play and Washington is near the bottom at 5.0, but it’s still rare to see such a large discrepancy between two NFL teams. We expect the Cowboys to dominate offensively, which should result in plenty of touchdowns to help cover the large 11-point spread.
  • 5 catches, 64.5 yards, 0.52 TDs – Amari Cooper lost snaps in the 4th quarter to Tavon Austin in last week’s matchup with Philly, which can only be categorized as a highly questionable decision by the Cowboys. He should play close to 100% of snaps this weekend in another must win outing, and he leads the Cowboys with five projected receptions and an average of 0.52 touchdowns. Washington has been very giving to opposing WRs this season, allowing 18 touchdowns (sixth-most) on just 253 targets (fourth-fewest).
  • 26/38, 316.9 yards, 1.77 TDs – Dak Prescott should have no issues carving up the Washington secondary. We’re projecting a highly efficient, 300+ yard outing for the NFL’s second-leading passer. His projected 68.4% completion percentage would be his third-highest mark of the season, with his best outing (26-30, 86.7%) coming against these same Redskins in Week 2.
  • 26/38, 316.9 yards, 1.77 TDs – Dak Prescott should have no issues carving up the Washington secondary. We’re projecting a highly efficient, 300+ yard outing for the NFL’s second-leading passer. His projected 68.4% completion percentage would be his third-highest mark of the season, with his best outing (26-30, 86.7%) coming against these same Redskins in Week 2.


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