NCAAF Free Pick from Linebacker: Liberty vs Georgia Southern

NCAAF Free Pick from Linebacker: Liberty vs Georgia Southern

Liberty Flames vs Georgia Southern Eagles (GASO -4, O/U 58)

Hugh Freeze and the Liberty Flames will square off with the Georgia Southern Eagles in this Saturday’s Cure Bowl. Both teams enter with solid 7-5 records and positive point differentials on the season. It will be a clash of conflicting styles in Orlando, as Georgia Southern is a triple-option based team that prefers grinding drives and winning the time of possession battle. On the other side, Liberty is a pass-first team that ranks 21st in the country with over 290 yards passing per game. The betting markets are giving the edge to the Eagles heading into Saturday’s matchup, listing them as 4-point favorites over the Flames.

Our model agrees Georgia Southern should be the favorite in this matchup, projecting a score of 30.9 – 23.0 in favor of the Eagles. With a near eight-point margin of victory projected, we have a solid wager on Georgia Southern in this one. Our model suggests a $79 wager on GA SOUTHERN -4 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s NCAAF picks are 327-278 ATS (54.0%) and 325-254 on OVER/UNDERs (56.1%) during the regular season, profiting +55.84 units, or $5,584 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to EVERY bowl game prediction.

Why Will Georgia Southern Cover the Spread?

  • The Eagles possess one of the better rushing attacks in the country. Their average of 261.5 rushing yards per game ranks sixth in the nation, while they still maintain solid efficiency at 5.06 yards per carry. The Flames have struggled to stop the run all season, ranking 100th in the country with 192.7 yards allowed per game on the ground. Their 5.0 yards per carry allowed to opposing FBS teams is one of the worst marks in the country, ranking 105th.
  • Georgia Southern should have no issues dominating time of possession in this game and limiting opportunities for the Flames. The Eagles rank 12th in the nation with over 33 minutes of possession per game, while Liberty is 100 spots behind them with an average of 27 minutes per game.
  • Liberty faced one of the easiest schedules in the country this season. Five of their 12 games came against teams in the bottom 10 of the end-of-season FBS rankings (UMass, New Mexico, New Mexico State x2, Rutgers), and two more games were against FCS opponents (Maine and Hampton). They won six of those seven games (lost to Rutgers), with their only other win of the season coming against Buffalo. Georgia Southern by no means faced a murderers’ row of opponents, but the Eagles’ path was certainly tougher than Liberty’s. They lost 35-32 to a highly ranked Minnesota team, knocked off a ranked team in Appalachian State, and played a total of six teams that will be participating in bowl games.

Flames vs Eagles: How to Bet the Total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 58. The Linebacker’s projected score totals 53.9 points (30.9 – 23.0), giving us a solid edge on the UNDER in this one. Our model suggests a $102 wager on UNDER 58 for an average $100 bettor.


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