Linebacker Free Pick Cotton Bowl Memphis vs Penn State Odds Shark

Linebacker Free Pick Cotton Bowl Memphis vs Penn State Odds Shark

Memphis Tigers vs Penn State Nittany Lions (PSU -7, O/U 59.5)

James Franklin and the Nittany Lions will square off with the Mike Norvell-less Memphis Tigers in the Cotton Bowl. Penn State will try to avoid its third loss in the last five games, while Memphis is looking for a signature program win to add to an already successful 12-win season. The Tigers offense has been one of the best in the country all season long, but they now will have to test their skills against a Big Ten defense without their primary play-caller.

Our model predicts Penn State will hold the Memphis offense in check, projecting a final score of 35.8 – 23.5 in favor of the Nittany Lions. With a projected margin of victory of over 12 points and Penn State currently listed as a 7-point favorite, we have a sizable edge on the Nittany Lions. Our model suggests a $103 wager on PENN STATE -7 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s NCAAF picks are 327-278 ATS (54.0%) and 325-254 on OVER/UNDERs (56.1%) during the regular season, profiting +55.84 units, or $5,584 for an average $100 bettor.

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Why will Penn State cover the spread?

  • The Nittany Lions should be able to slow down – if not completely stop – the Memphis rushing attack. Memphis averages a 22nd-ranked 5.0 yards per carry and produced nearly 200 yards on the ground per game this season. Penn State has allowed the fewest yards per carry in the country (2.8) and has the talent up front to stymie the Tigers ground game.
  • Memphis hasn’t faced a defensive front like Penn State’s all season. Quarterback Brady White has been consistently gifted clean pockets to throw from, with only 5.26 percent of his dropbacks ending in sacks (42nd-best). The Nittany Lions have a great pass rush led by NFL talent Yetur Gross-Matos. They’ve sacked opposing QBs on 7.92 percent of their dropbacks, good for 26th-best in the country. White is strictly a pocket passer for the Tigers, so the Lions won’t have to worry about him scrambling if they bring extra pressure.
  • The Tigers possess one of the worst red-zone defenses in the country. They’ve allowed opponents to convert on 90 percent of their red-zone trips, which ranks 110th. Penn State has been one of the better teams in the country this season at converting red-zone trips into scores, cashing in at an 88.57 percent rate in the red zone.
  • Penn State ranks fourth in the nation in opponent points per play and should be able to slow down the prolific Memphis offense thanks to its great defensive front.

Tigers vs Nittany Lions: How to bet the total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 59.5. The Linebacker’s projected score totals 59.3 points (35.8 – 23.5), leaving us with no suggested bet on the total in this one.


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